What does the future hold.

[Erfolg]

Again I decided to take a tram ride. I lefy home, took a fleeting glance at the windmills in the distance, which I estimated to be about 15miles. I was sure that not a blade was turning, but hoe could I tell as I could not see them that closely?

 

After catching the tram, 54 minutes later I could see the turbines, yes I was correct, again, not a single blade moved. I guess it is the slight glint that gives the game away when moving. Still surprised though that you can tell from quite a distance when they are turning.

 

I had been mulling over in my mind what was the future for aeromodelling as I approached Bury, partly as so much scrub land is along the north end of the route, the hills that surround Bury and district appear to be ideal for slope soaring.

 

My mind turned to the conundrum, is it noise from IC motors , or perhaps the rapidly aging "age profile" of UK modellers which is the greatest threat to a thriving hobby, or is it something I have not identified. It was the Aldershot? threat which prompted the reflection of threats to aeromodelling.

 

The good news 2 hours later, those wind turbines had started to rotate, not all, but some. There will be power for my coffee when I get home, with no need to push the tram.

[Romeo Whisky]

Que sera sera - whatever will be, will be!!

 

It's an old song - maybe that gives away my age!

[Pete B]

I think the immediate future is going to be more expensive modelling. I emailed a store yesterday, making an offer for a single kit they've had on offer for a long time. They didn't accept the offer but added the following comment:

 

'Once this stock has gone it seems unlikely that there will be further VMAR models available, mainly due to a proposed large price increase by the manufacturer.'

 

Given that manufacturing costs in the Far East will inevitably rise in line with their improvement in living standards, it my be worth considering stocking up if you can!

 

Pete

[Erfolg]

I am never totally convinced with respects to price increases as being necessarily driven by high external pressures, such as wages.

 

Quite a lot of the pressures at present can be currency related, in that the £ has been allowed to devalue relative to many currencies. At present the very low interest rates do not help in that respect.

 

The increases in vat push up prices slightly.

 

It depends who you believe with respect to Chinese inflation, most newspaper, type, reports and business web sites, suggest increases in the 10% region at the factory gates, with a 20% max.

 

It is noticeable that the posted prices locally for kits and other modelling materials are a very small proportion of advertised UK prices. Most of the indicators seem to point to the prices being something to do with the UK and EU market place. As USA prices seem to be roughly $ to £ relationship. They all source their models and other stuff's from the Far East

 

Perhaps you have hit on the biggest threat to modelling at the moment. When most other UK retailers are battening down the hatches, the model trade see a ratcheting up of prices as the way to go, if what you have been told passes into policy.

 

It could be that HK will hole the vessel we call the UK model industry, possibly below the water line. If this were to happen, I can see some surviving the debacle, these will be the price sensitive, who bye-pass the present big wholesalers/distributors. Then again may be nothing will happen and we all dig a bit deeper into our household pockets.

[andy watson]

I think that any analysis of the price of modelling will show it is now exceptionally cheap in historical terms.

 

I would also dispute the "rapidly aging" profile- I think this has always been a hobby for young boys and gentlemen of a certain age- I know with my young family it is very difficult for me to find as much time as I might like to spend on it.

 

Next time you are passing Bury, maybe you could pop in and see us at Bury Metro model flyers.

[Erfolg]

Andy

 

Although I have not been there in over 40 years on reflection (I thought it was less), I would be only to pleased to visit your site one day. It is one of the few places that have changed for the better, so it seems. Where are you?

 

Your comments on relative prices, could be near the truth. I may get round to doing a RPI calc (when I remember how to do it) to get a feel of comparable prices.

 

I am really commenting on the price changes muted. I suspect that there are few economic drivers for significant increases, at present.

 

There does seem to be a shift towards"Wrinkly tin Shed Operations" and "Internet Operations" (which could also be wrinkly tin sheds). I guess modern business units and higher sales volumes, often free rental for a period, then lowish rental, can get round the high shop rentals, high rates and so on.

 

I do disagree with respect age profile though, we have only two young members in our club( teenagers), who we see infrequently. In my youth me and my mates all modeled, not that successfully on reflection.

[Reno Racer]

I for one will be stocking up on kits here in the US ready for my return to the UK next year. If it makes you feel any better, the cost of models here in the US has also increased significantly.

 

I bought a Great Planes Revolver 70" for $180 a few months ago, it now sells for $229.

 

That said, its still a darn site cheaper than the £285 ($470) I've seen it for sale on UK modelshop sites. Thats twice as much in the UK!!

 

Maybe the future looks more like an increase in traditional kit building and repairing those ARFS that are easily repairable, but get disgarded by those who only ARF.

You can buy a Top Flite 60 size P-51 here in the US for $139, about $85! Even the ARF can be found for £160 Equiv.

 

Since the UK shops get their stock from the same place as the US shops do, that I find it difficult to accept that, in the case of the Revolver, it costs another $200 per kit in shipping and Taxes, surely they don't arrive in shiiping containers containing just one model

 

Whilst UK prices keep going up, it is cheaper to order this particular aircraft from Tower Hobbies in the US, including paying inport duty and shipping. Now thats just wrong!

 

 

Edited By Christian Ackroyd on 24/08/2011 00:08:55

[Erfolg]

Christian

 

I do agree at face value it does seem unreasonable to double USA prices, as the USA price also carries carriage import duties etc.

 

I understand that there are a number of reasons. The first is that taxes and charges (rates, water charges, rent) are very high in the UK. The second revolves around the so called "Rip off Britain" aspect. Although the business overheads are high, the expected return on investments are also historically high. They have to be with current retailing model, to make the risks worthwhile. Hence the reduction in the number of LMS, less is sold overall, making the margin between being profitable and loss, ever narrower ( I have no data for this opinion for modelling, read the concept with respect to haberdashery).

 

The "wrinkly tin shed" businesses, particularly the direct importers, could be the game changers. We would see the total disappearance of most LMS, other than those who offer some special service, agents for foreign manufacturers etc. This may contain costs as seen with USA outfits such as "Tower", "Hobby Shack" etc, although the number of traders would be much less.

 

I have remembered when i did indexing of RPI, I was about 13-15 when doing percentages at school. From a dim memory, it was dead easy, other than you needed a table of the yearly index rate, to apply to each year. A bit more involved than simple interest, a lot slower than compound interest.

[FunnyFlyer]

Re cost of modelling items.

 

Here's a thread from year with a link to a neat Historical Price Calculator.

 

See here

[Erfolg]

It seems you have to be selective in your comparisons.

 

Electrical, radio equipment has fallen particularly servos, very much so with Rx's from second tier manufactures. I guess technology and competition is the driver.

 

With respect to airframes a very quick comparison, suggests, static prices or to date slightly increased

 

From a RC Model World, 2002

Multiplex Pico was £99 if available with servos at £120.

Chris Foss wot 4 £73 to £89

 

2007

 

GWS F4U was £33 now £35

SF Piper Cub (67") was £55 now £66

Seagull PT19 was £63 now £68

 

I think that all the selected models are more expensive than what they should cost now

 

The figures give a feel that prices in 2002 were similar, although probably lower than today. Around 2007 was a low point in prices. I guess that all the models do cost more now and some are suggesting a considerable further increase.

 

Will the increases if they become firmed, have any significant impact, is difficult to guess. I suspect yes, mainly because other aspects of the home economy for many is under great pressure.

 

Edited By Erfolg on 24/08/2011 12:59:46

[Former Member]

[This posting has been removed]

[Seamus O'Leprosy]

I cleared out some 1970s RCMEs and RM mags and the prices were incredible a months wages for a 6ch radio.
Lots of items have come down but there still seems to be a lot of "taking advantage of the poor modeller" where some distributors are concerned.
To protect the guilty I won't mention names.
I fancied a 2.6mtr Habicth glider and as I have to get most of my items overseas did a quick Yahoogle search. From HK it would cost me ?108 sterling from UK ?230 sterling, postage was similar and I would have a 50/50 chance of getting stuck for 23% vat on the Hong Kong price.
That's an awfull lot of cream some one is having on behalf of us modellers.

[kiwi g]

What does the future hold ?

Smaller more powerful batteries with a universal plug that will be sold at the supermarket battery stand and not labelled just for models.

More cheaper badly engineered electronic equipment .

A signal that just wont fail no matter what the interference.

Public areas dedicated to people who enjoy more in life than sitting around listening to silence.

Goverment subsidies for people who want to experiment with RC

 

Seeding the clouds so it never rains or blows and is always great for flying.

 

A Prime Minister that rides motorbikes , modifies vehicles and flys RC

 

Hmmm somehow I cant see that happening . can you.

[Terence Lynock]

A Prime Minister that rides motorbikes , modifies vehicles and flys RC

 

A prime minister that has the barest of intelligence to do so would be nice......

[Keith Simmons]

Sorry if this is the wrong place, or I need to create a new thread, But its the future?

Can anyone give any idea and perspectives if Pseudocapacitors is the new power storage medium as Supercapacitors and Batteries? I have seen it on the latest ICE science notification.