Lee Wilson Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 NASA have stated it won't hit America. Thats good of them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Harris - Moderator Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 I'd imagine that if the know it won't hit the States then they must have a fairly good idea where it will hit... Although the gentleman from Fylingdales on the wireless this morning said it wan't possible to make any prediction (but then he isn't trying to reassure his own population that they know what they're doing with their tax dollars). The cynic in me says that perhaps they are playing the percentages game...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andy watson Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 The water is irrelevant- it doesn't affect the probability of a person being hit. Martin is correct, however the argumet falls clearly within the bounds of my "if you can be bothered" statement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lima Hotel Foxtrot Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Posted by Lee Wilson on 23/09/2011 10:14:36:NASA have stated it won't hit America. Thats good of them! Because the Yanks would freak out, sue NASA on the flimsiest of pretences and possibly hail it as a curse from God on the Federal Government not doing anything to stop gays, abortions, muslims or lack of jobs. Not that I deal in stereotypes or anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggles' Elder Brother - Moderator Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Posted by andy watson on 23/09/2011 15:11:34: The water is irrelevant- it doesn't affect the probability of a person being hit. Martin is correct, however the argumet falls clearly within the bounds of my "if you can be bothered" statement. We should always be bothered! I'm puzzled by the statement "the water is irrelevant - it doesn't affect the probability of a person being hit". You see I think it must do. If we assume that the human population density of the water (i.e. the oceans) is effectively zero, then a neceaasry pre-requisite of a person being hit is that the thing must come down on the land. Therefore whatever further assumptions we make would have to be premultiplied by the probably that the satellite impacts on the land. That probability is not close to one - its likely to be somewhere between 0.3 and 0.5 so it would have a significant influence on the final probability of someone being hit! Useless I agree - but interesting! BEB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seamus O'Leprosy Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 There is a good probability that I am confused.But at least its an excuse not to go out and cut the grass this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solid Snake Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Sounds like Skylab all over again Apparently when they calculated the crash site of Skylab they made a 4% error which was the difference between Cape Town and Queensland Australia The Shire of Esperance fined the US for £400 for littering when they found bits of Skylab on the ground Edited By James E on 23/09/2011 17:15:00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Harris - Moderator Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Posted by James E on 23/09/2011 17:13:49: The Shire of Esperance fined the US for £400 for littering when they found bits of Skylab on the ground You'd have thought that would have taught them a lesson! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom T Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Does anyone know what time its hitting? Cause I wish it would hurry about it, hmm....... I need some laughter when it lands in the sea and America claims that they are the greatest and everyone else on the planet knows that there not. Rant over.... (sorry if i just offended someone) Tom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggles' Elder Brother - Moderator Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Before we get too much into knocking our American cousins - we should keep in mind that next year an even bigger satellite is due to make an, er, "arrival" here on earth. Its called ROAST and its.....German. The Russians have had their fair share of stuff come crashing down as well. So its not only the Yanks that have this problem. What was it my old instructor used to say? "Every take-off is a choice, every landing is compulsary"! BEB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ken anderson. Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 handy if it lands in a scrapyard..... ken anderson ne...1. .. out of this world dept. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andy watson Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 BEB, It makes no difference which way you calculate it, the total area of the earth actually covered by people is only defined by 2 factors: 1) The number of people 2) The amount of space each of those people takes up. If we assume the satellites fall is completely random then each person has an equal chance of being hit irrespective of where they are standing (Martins argument excepted). The effective population density of 0 is countered by a corresponding increase in density on the land masses. If your still not convinced: draw a 10*10 grid, and draw a person in any 5 boxes. Throw a dart at your grid (eyes closed for statistical accuracy) and you have a 5% chance of hitting someone. Now repeat the experiment, but shade in 70 boxes to represent the sea. Draw your 5 people in any of the 30 remaining squares. Your dart still has a 5% chance of hitting someone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josip Vrandecic -Mes Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Dear Martin,stop with the calculations and worry no more.....sat parts have fallen in the area of Western Canada....no casualties....untill the next fall....... Cheers Jo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plummet Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Poor trees. P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Privett Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Don't worry about the trees any longer Plummet. You can now be concerned about the fish! It seems the latest figures have the satellite entering the atmosphere a little earlier than they first reckoned, at 0401GMT. It "entered the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean at 14.1 degrees South latitude and 170.2 degrees West longitude. Any debris that survived Saturday's fiery descent would have plunged into open water" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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