What is the impact?

[Erfolg]

Some time ago David Ashby posed the question, will the downturn in the economy effect your modelling, or a some phrases along those lines?

 

At the time the increase in fuel prices seemed to be the big issue.

 

Now everything looks far worse

a) The pound has fallen in value by approx. 25%

b) Some economic commentaors are suggesting that the country is close to bankcruptcy, and the IMF may be required. Remember the  Healey period.

c) A far more important impact is the 2m unemployed,. I sat 2m because I understand that all over 50s are ommitted from official figures. I think Thatcher came up with that wheese.

d) Oil and gas prices have fallen at the world level, but as these are traded in dollars, we may not see that mush benefit.

e) Inflation in real terms is well above 3%, with food inflation still substantially above the quoted figure. Some are saying/writing that imports will rise in cost.

 

What does it mean to

1) us modellers, as indivuals?

2) The trade, distriduters, shops, the publishers of titles of magazines etc.

 

I wonder if there will soon be just me, or a motely crew of us old men at the flying field? Will my nearest model shop be in Germany or France etc.

 

I just wonder

 

Erfolg 

[Alex Leigh]

It is all a bit depressing isn't it? But, if last recessions are anything to go by, hobby spending seems to be the last 'discretionary' spend that gets axed. Probably because when the world has turned to rat-poo, people need a form of escapism.

Sure there will be cutbacks of spend, but it’s never quite as black as the media puts out. Bad news sells sadly. My view is this financial crisis isn’t my fault, nor can I fix it. Therefore, I’m instituting a rolling one year news blackout, and shall instead be spending time making stuff, flying stuff, crashing stuff and – still – buying stuff.

It’ll get worse before it gets better. But it will get better.

[Gemma Jane]

Well my business has been hit very hard as I work along side the construction industry, usually being onsite a year a two ahead so work practically stopped last year.

 

How has it affected me as an individual? I have far too much time to spend on internet forums!

 

Regarding the modelling side, no more buying ARTF foamies for me I shall just complete what I already have (unless it is a GWS super cheapy ) and no more buying supplies from model shops unless they address a few issues.

 

I was use to going into my local shop and buying a paint brush for £1.36 - searching the web I just purchased 10 brushes for less, it is the same for many supplies, scalpels, carbon rod, brass tube, cutting boards all can be sourced far cheaper with a bit of searching than my local model shop charges - so really they need to take notice, it use to be convenient to just walk in an pay a premium price but that now means to me less for my money, if they are going to survive they need to start stocking the things I want at competitive prices. I know all too well they have their own problems to worry about but that is my individual perspective of the situation.

[ken anderson.]

what if someone last year at this time had told you all woolies shops would now be closed! what would you have said/thought---it was time for the lads with the white coats on to call and take them away for a rest?i know of one friend who had been at woolies all her working life--35years+no big pay out-- zilch!

 

                                                 ken anderson.

[winchweight]

Trouble is Gemma, buying your brushes etc online is a sure way to nail the coffin shut on the High Street LHS. An actual shop has overheads and can never hope to compete with the internet. I have made a conscious decision to buy more of my stuff from my LHS so he will be there in the future (hopefully)

 

Ken - you're right. But take heart, Northern Rock (remember they were among the first to be bailedout by the Govt) paid out £9m in staff bonuses this year!

 

 

[Chris C]

i think thats a rip off 9milion whos paying for that eh, i tell ya the gov, better bail out the local model shops they can afford it thats for sure

[Gemma Jane]

I have to agree with Shaun totally, unfortunately though I have to look at what I am going to get for my money. I just bought enough tools to start balsa bashing on the net for less than £20 that includes a comprehensive knife set, cutting board, magnifying head set - at the local shop I would have spent £50 or more and to be honest the quality would have been the same - that means I have more money left over for other things.

 

If though my local model shop had the basic supplies at the same price, well I would go in and no doubt come out not only with my basic supplies but a large box under my arm (the guy in the shop always says he has no trouble parting fools from their money lol)

 

That is how I would look at it, make the little essentials competitive and get the people through the door might help keep model shops going.

 

I ought to add that I really like my local shop, I always have a good natter when there and have had billions of little tips that have helped me out so I would hate to see it go.

[Stephen Grigg]

Like Gemma my business in the motor trade has been seriously  affected by the economy.Fortunately I have plenty of models to be getting on with but have to spend endless hours at worktrying to drum up some business generally to no avail.Im frustrated because ive found a hobby to participate in but so much time is waisted trying to earn a living there is little time for anything else at present .Im looking forward to the light evenings

[Erfolg]

I have little in the way of a model shop, within 5 miles. The nearest proper model shop is possibly in Stockport, about 7 miles away but 30-45 minutes away, with poor parking. Webbs is about 15 miles away, but is excellent. When it is not convienant to just pop along to the shop, it needs to be price competative, as Gemma suggests.

Often it is more convienant , and can be faster to use the inter-net and postal service.

 

In this type of competive environment, I think the small shops will disapear, the well stocked higher price quartile (expensive, but felt the need to use the word) shops will also potentially go. I expect that the cheap and cheerful inter-net business will survive,and become more dominant in market share.

 

I am really curious if the reduced buying power of the pound will encourage the more plan building. I would expect ATF to increase in price by 25%, to cover the exchange rate movement. Of course using the same reasoning some bigger purchase items will also increase e.g. Radios.

 

I remember the time when we Brits could afford very little in France and Germany etc. A cup of coffee costing the equivalent of about £5. I also remember that it cost about 25% of my salary to get to work, never mind embarking on discretionary travel. This was because fuel and tax costs were high, the fuel costs were inpart due to the pound exchange ratebeing so poor and the then goverment spending so much money on pet projects, as if it were out of fashion.  So what I really fear is the fall in the value of Sterling, will impact on the overall quality of life. As Sir John Harvey Johns said " any fool can give the fruits of their labour away, the trick is to get other businesses and countries to pay

 hansomley". 

[Dave S.]

Erfolg, I used to cycle to the model shop in Stockport to buy balsa, etc. Seems a lifetime ago now. Nearest shop for me now is a good 1½ hour drive each way, so I'm lucky if I get there more than once a year.

[Former Member]

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[batcho99]

I hope you all decide to fly to your holiday destinations this year because I work in the aviation industry. If people decide to save a few quid and holiday in the UK then alot of jobs in that sector will be going, we're already feeling the pinch as the company I work for are getting rid of 45 jobs this month! And it's not a very big company in comparison!

As for myself, i nipped the model shop this morning and spent a few quid to upgrade my heli. I dont know why, but I questioned the shop owner about his VAT rate on his goods and he wasn't very clear with his answer, all of his prices are the same or have increased since the vat drop? Does that mean he's making more profit on items??

[Former Member]

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[Peter Miller]

Talking about how the hobby may b affected by the recessionj(depression) made me think about the Great Depression.

 

In the USA Modelling started to take off after Lindbergh crossed the Atlantic in 1927. From then on aeromodelling grew steadily in spit of the depression years. Admittedly it was all rubber powered stuff, small and comparatively cheap.

 

Also, a lot of modellers today are pensioners and they will keep going,

 

Perhaps a lot of the dedicated ARTF buyers will decide to build from plans. After all, you can build a small R/C model for comparaatively little money if you salvage all the bits from old, retired or crashed models.

 

They may learn to reapair the ARTFs.

 

Builders may explore less conventional materials. ther have been a lot of cardboard models. Correx has potential and you can't destroy a Correx model.

 

Shop around for your wood. Check out the new SLEC website. They sell good wood very cheaply and offer big discounts if you spend over £25 and even more if you spend higher amounts.

 

Strip your own wood from sheet, a balsa stripper will save its own cost in a couple of models, less if you build a vintage type with lots of strip.

 

It is very interesting to see my Public Lending Right statement. "High Flying on a Low Budget" is being borrowed from libraries at a great rate.

[Erfolg]

Pete

 

I am already into the recycling of models industry. Many of the models I am now flying are rebuilt 15 yeras old. I am now converting an old flying wing to electric.

 

My principal gripe is the high cost of covering film. This is based on having worked in the food industry where a a film is used which contains a carrier, a pigment layer and a release agent. If the release agent were replaced by heat sensative adhesive you have essentially film. This stuff was sold in rolls for overprinting  plastic packaging, at a cost, which if related to solar film, would keep me going for years, not just one model. Of course packaging of food etc. is very cost sensitive, get the price wrong and a hundred suppliers will be there trying to replace you.

 

As for the economic situation, it is no consulation that older modellers will be less affected, because political idealogy causes goverment to carry out policies, which are not possibly the best for the whole country.

 

I suspect there will be a negative impact to me and my club, even if it is that we see some members less or they leave us alltogether.

 

Erfolg 

[Former Member]

[This posting has been removed]

[ken anderson.]

we used to have a shipbreaking yard up this end of the woods-which in its heyday was employing 500 people and recycling 1000 tons of steel a week--it stopped working several years ago-probably due to economics.

 

                                 ken anderson

[Erfolg]

Some to seem to think that tr-cycling is new.

 

I remember the returning bottles for the deposit. I also remember the rag and bone men, who collected old clothes. On a larger scale there was a breakers beach at Alenby in Cumbria (or Westmoorland) disposing of old ships.

 

The main difference is that the process made money, rather than tax payers paying.

[Dave S.]

I live in Finland; here we always collect our empty bottles and cans for return to the shop where we get back the deposit paid on them. The process is automated, with return machines in most supermarkets. I get the impression that the situation in Britain exists only there.

[Hamish]

Recently purchase off net.  When total came, after I had ordered, postage came to about 25% of cost, which would have purchased enough balsa for two more models.

 

I can go to two good model shops reasonably easily and from now on will buy locally

[Myron Beaumont]

Ken

Have been puzzled by your little "logo" .Looks to me like a frog being eaten by a bird !

Could you explain ?

[Erfolg]

Myron

 

Your postage must be high, as balsa from what was my local was about £0.5 Min per sheet. Even from the Far East postage is about £3. Maybe 6 sheets of balsa.  From my perspective, about a gallon of fuel from my now local model shop or pprox. £5. My GC postage has always been lower than the fuel cosy.

 

I love to  mooch around a good model shop, but it now comes at a monatary cost as well as a time penalty. I wish you well with your visits. But do plant atree when you make that journey, do your bit to save the planet      .

 

 

 

Erfolg

 

 

 

 

[Peter Miller]

Ther  trouble is that postage doesn't go up in proprtion to the amount of wood bought. You didn't buy enough to make it worth while!

[Erfolg]

Peter

 

I now buy my balsa and ply on line.

 

The last lot I bought was from Inwoods, to my standards it is good. But then again my selection abilities are probably low, so even selecting at my local (+15 miles) model shop, is probably no better.

 

When my local model shop closed, it was the business rates and shop rent that killed it. When you hear how much the council (what ever party ) wants, you start to realise that the offshore global business may have a number of significant advantages. Recession or no recession.

 

I guess that those businesses located in China possibly have another major advantage, in that there is probably no agent to pay ie. Ripmax, McGregor etc. Yet a Uk based business would be hard pressed to to obtain products without them.

 

 

[Owen Hailey]

Hi all

 

Me and my Good lady are often complaning about the so called slump, we have all ways lived in a hand to mouth life stile, so nouthing new there, but I do not drink or smoke, and if I cant have the odd bit of fun, then its time to bie a gun and shout my self in the head, as there has to be some reward for our toil, so come on we all need an out let from time to time.

 

Have some fun Owen.