Electric Cars.

[MattyB]

6 hours ago, Erfolg said:

I appreciate that regenerative braking is a good feature. Yet, it is not essential for energy efficiency. In my case I drive a diesel car, it averages 55 mpg. I am still using the original brake pads and tyres at 55, 000 miles. Driving style is important….

It is, but that is still an exceptional mileage to get out of a set of tyres. I can only assume you must do a lot of very straight motorway miles and not a lot else! I am a pretty gentle driver and the most I’ve ever got out of a set in the UK is about 35k, not sure our roads would allow any more than that tbh. I actually had two tyres die prematurely shortly after COVID, they went out of shape and cracked due to a combination of cold weather and lack of use. 

[MattyB]

6 hours ago, Erfolg said:

I have just read that "Copart" that 50% of electric vehicles of low mileage EVs, exhibit battery damage. It is not clear why, other than these are low damaged vehicles. the ABI (association of British Insurers) has written that at present it is costing 33% more to repair EVs compared to IC vehicles. It seem that EV design has some way to go. 

Sorry, but that needs a source - without one it just reads as Daily Mail FUD. Of course all batteries of every chemistry age to a degree, but levels in the latest EVs using are very low compared to early EVs -  Tesla have posted figures saying they expect only 12% capacity loss after 200k, a performance that shows they will easily outlast the car in the vast majority of cases in the EU and US. LFP and other newer chemistries should be significantly better than that  too.

[MattyB]

6 hours ago, Erfolg said:

I have also read that half the value of a EV is the battery. I am not convinced that many EVs are not overpriced. It suggests that a a typical £40,000 vehicle (often a low cost for an EV), that it cost £20,000 to build the rest of it. Then there is the EU suggestion that Chinese manufactures are dumping EVs as they are often much cheaper. Hmm who is doing what?

Not sure where you read that, but it is no longer correct. Li Ion costs have dropped dramatically in recent years as manufacturing techniques have improved , and even taking into account a small recent rise due to cost of materials (which I concede could be a major electrification challenge in the coming years, and not just to EVs unless they can get sodium batteries working effectively) the cost of your average 40kwh EV pack is $6-7k, or double that for a long range EV with an 80kwh pack. 

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/883118/global-lithium-ion-battery-pack-costs/

[Learner]

15 minutes ago, MattyB said:

Not sure where you read that, but it is no longer correct. Li Ion costs have dropped dramatically in recent years as manufacturing techniques have improved , and even taking into account a small recent rise due to cost of materials (which I concede could be a major electrification challenge in the coming years, and not just to EVs unless they can get sodium batteries working effectively) the cost of your average 40kwh EV pack is $6-7k, or double that for a long range EV with an 80kwh pack. 

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/883118/global-lithium-ion-battery-pack-costs/

Shame the price of the cars aren't coming down then.

[Erfolg]

Matty

 

The cost of the batteries was quoted as part of the article on repair costs of EV vehicles, resulting in as much as 100% higher insurance premiums when compared to comparable IC cars.

 

I must admit how you can compare a IC to EV on cost, has me scratching my head, what do you actually class as comparable, but I got the message.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Erfolg

[Learner]

39 minutes ago, MattyB said:

 Tesla have posted figures saying they expect only 12% capacity loss after 200k

I'm sure you have you an independent report to back that up.

[Paul De Tourtoulon]

28 minutes ago, MattyB said:

the cost of your average 40kwh EV pack is $6-7k,

Just looked up the tesla 3, from 15.000€ to 23.000€ replacement Renault Zoe 10.000€ !

 

sorry but in french,,,https://www.presse-citron.net/voiture-electrique-combien-coute-le-remplacement-de-batterie/

[Ron Gray]

5 minutes ago, Learner said:

I'm sure you have you an independent report to back that up.

https://youtu.be/r1BBNJDnkTQ?si=yaB1-huAER7x2Gem

[Learner]

57 minutes ago, Ron Gray said:

https://youtu.be/r1BBNJDnkTQ?si=yaB1-huAER7x2Gem

Of course youtube where all the reliable information comes from.

How did we manage without it 

[Ron Gray]

The platform is irrelevant, the facts are not.

[Learner]

9 minutes ago, Ron Gray said:

The platform is irrelevant, the facts are not.

Thats the fun with youtube you can find whatever "facts" you want to believe. 

[MattyB]

3 hours ago, Learner said:

Shame the price of the cars aren't coming down then.

 

They are, but not fast enough I agree. You are right that manufacturers are trying to make more profit from them by focussing on the bigger, more expensive models where margins are higher. Over time as volumes scale up costs should steadily decrease, but ICE has 100+ years of development and refinement in terms of cost effective manufacture, so it will take time. I suspect we are still 3-5 years away from true cost parity in terms of the sticker prices of comparable ICE cars and EVs, though at the high end Tesla in particular are putting legacy automakers like BMW, Merc et al under some serious cost pressure now.

 

3 hours ago, Erfolg said:

The cost of the batteries was quoted as part of the article on repair costs of EV vehicles, resulting in as much as 100% higher insurance premiums when compared to comparable IC cars.

 

You are conflating two different statements here. The exact quote you made was "I have also read that half the value of a EV is the battery". That is demonstrably not true - a new Leaf today witha 39kwh battery costs jsut under £30k in the UK, but as per my previous post that pack costs Nissan £6-7k to produce. If the pack really cost £15k to make, they would be losing money on every one.

 

2 hours ago, Paul De Tourtoulon said:

Just looked up the tesla 3, from 15.000€ to 23.000€ replacement Renault Zoe 10.000€ !

 

sorry but in french,,,https://www.presse-citron.net/voiture-electrique-combien-coute-le-remplacement-de-batterie/

 

Actually those battery replacement costs (note - not manufacturing costs!) look pretty well aligned with that $155/kwh costs from the Staististica figures above by the time you have factored in transporting it over, specialist labour to fit etc.. Calcs below based on 1 euro = 1.05 USD:

 

• Model 3 Std range - 55 kwh, $285/kwh
• Model 3 Long range - 75 kwh. $307/kwh
• Zoe - GT Line 50 kwh = $200/kwh, prev version with 41 kwh = $250/kwh (I don't know to which version you were refering)

 

The fact that replacing a pack should the car get shunted costs more than what the manufacturer pays intially should come as no surprise, as there is a lot of complexity involved - they are often structural elements of the car (this is in part why Teslas are so expensive to insure), so there will be a lot of time in removing the old one and installing the new. In reality though degradation rates now are low enough that replacement due to natural and mileage related ageing won't be needed  for 95% of drivers, especially given these cars have pretty long ranges from new anyway, so even with a bit of degradation they are still perfectly usable for the vast majority of journeys.

 

PS - It is rather amusing that you quoted that article to "prove the point" that my batt costs were off, but didn't read the other bits that didn't quite suit your narrative... 😉

 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Erfolg said:

I must admit how you can compare a IC to EV on cost, has me scratching my head, what do you actually class as comparable, but I got the message.

 

No, I agree with you (I'm not a zealot 😉 ). If you are a company car buyer an EV is a financial no-brainer, but if you are a private buyer buying a new car outright (not on a 3 year PCP) it is almost impossible to make the financial case by the time you have factored in higher insurance, installing a home charger, and the fact that (other than on Teslas ) the serviceing costs seem to be being artificially inflated by garages  despite the lack of actual work needed. We will undoubtedly go pure EV for our next (runabout) car, but that is primarily because of the dip in secondhand EV prices and the fact our solar means it makes complete sense to go electric.  Would I buy a new one? No way, but then I wouldn't buy a new ICE car either...

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by MattyB

[MattyB]

2 hours ago, Learner said:

I'm sure you have you an independent report to back that up.

 

Tesla have made more than 4m cars now, including nigh on half a million in Q2 2023 alone; only BYD can get close, but they do still make hybrids as well in China. Tesla know more about mass EV manufacturing than anyone else, and lead the world in battery tech and by using newtechnologies like giga-casting.  All but the very earliest ones have are remotely managed and every parameter monitored, so the data pool they have is richer. The long ranges of all the cars and the supercharger network also means they have more high mileage drivers than any other EV manufacturer. 

 

Given all that, if there was a major battery degradation problem, I think we'd know about it by now. Certainly of the 15 or so Tesla owners I know personally, not one has ever had a battery issue or mentioned battery degradation. I suspect that is the reaon you buy a Tesla - yes they are still expensive (though better than their exec competition), but the tech you get plus the supercharger network means range anxiety jsut doesn't exist int he same way it does for drivers of other makes. 

[IDD15]

So the results of a typical Sunday trip to visit relatives in a couple of separate locations oop here in the NW. Conditions were quite grotty here with heavy rain in the morning so it was lights on, AC on, wipers on etc. Fortunately it dried up a bit for us on the afternoon and early evening parts of the journey.

 

Travel was the usual mixture of motorway, dual carriageway, 30 and 20 zones, and of course roadworks. 

 

The spray on the M6 was pretty phenomenal, I swear there was more water on Thelwall viaduct than flowing underneath it! Its all very well building 8/10 lane stretches of motorway but no one seems to taken account of the amount of spray vehicles throw up. Perhaps we should consider compulsory reduced motorway speeds in the wet like they have in Germany? Probably best we don't go there...🤪

 

Our 58 kWh Born never "broke sweat" really, and as you can see thinks it can do another 134 odd miles on the 50% battery remaining. However after 4 hrs driving over quite a long day I'd had enough and was more than happy to sit in front of the telly! 

 

In my 30 kWhr 1st gen Leaf of 6/7 years ago we would have had to consider charging enroute to do the same trip. Bit tricky as very few chargers then. If we had been in the 40 kWhr Leaf of 3 years ago it would have done it without charging, but probably only just given the road conditions. 

 

So a completely unremarkable journey but shows just how far modern EVs have come on in quite a short space of time. 

 

Cheers

idd

PS must dust the interior! 

 

 

[Ron Gray]

8 hours ago, MattyB said:

supercharger network means range anxiety jsut doesn't exist int he same way it does for drivers of other makes. 

The Tesla supercharger network is being opened up to non Tesla vehicles.

[Paul De Tourtoulon]

5 minutes ago, Ron Gray said:

The Tesla supercharger network is being opened up to non Tesla vehicles.

The Tesla superchargers are open here, but if you have a car that will only take a slow charge, then it's really expensive, as  you are charged(£) by the minute,,,

[Frank Skilbeck]

3 minutes ago, Paul De Tourtoulon said:

The Tesla superchargers are open here, but if you have a car that will only take a slow charge, then it's really expensive, as  you are charged(£) by the minute,,,

Is this to deter non Tesla users? 

 

12 minutes ago, Ron Gray said:

The Tesla supercharger network is being opened up to non Tesla vehicles.

Is this due to the EU mandating fitment of standard type 2 CCS leads.

 

But yes Tesla were quick to realise that if you wanted to sell EVs then relying on others to provide the charging network wasn't viable. Also neat how they've modulised them so there installation costs are way less than other companies.

[Tim Kearsley]

The only problem (for Tesla owners that is) with Tesla opening up some of the supercharger sites to non-Tesla vehicles is that the sites are designed specifically for Teslas, obviously.  Tesla vehicle charging points are at the rear, on the near-side.  The supercharger charging cables are only long enough to reach that location.  So the Tesla Motors Club forum has had pictures of drivers of other vehicles who, to get their vehicle's charge port close enough, park in adjacent bays and effectively occupy two bays.  As a Tesla driver, you are able to see, on the sat-nav display, from the car how many bays are in use at any charger, but obviously this information is not valid if one charge event is taking up two bays!

[IDD15]

27 minutes ago, Tim Kearsley said:

The only problem (for Tesla owners that is) with Tesla opening up some of the supercharger sites to non-Tesla vehicles is that the sites are designed specifically for Teslas, obviously.  Tesla vehicle charging points are at the rear, on the near-side.  The supercharger charging cables are only long enough to reach that location.  So the Tesla Motors Club forum has had pictures of drivers of other vehicles who, to get their vehicle's charge port close enough, park in adjacent bays and effectively occupy two bays.  As a Tesla driver, you are able to see, on the sat-nav display, from the car how many bays are in use at any charger, but obviously this information is not valid if one charge event is taking up two bays!

New V4(?) chargers have longer cables and contactless payment for cards as well. There's a new open hub at just off the M6 at Trentham got them. 

 

All credit to Tesla, they do not hang about banging in chargers and growing the network. Could not believe they'd doubled the number of chargers at Rugby when we visited the other week. All in less than 2 years!

 

cheers

idd

[MattyB]

4 minutes ago, IDD15 said:

New V4(?) chargers have longer cables and contactless payment for cards as well. There's a new open hub at just off the M6 at Trentham got them. 

 

All credit to Tesla, they do not hang about banging in chargers and growing the network. Could not believe they'd doubled the number of chargers at Rugby when we visited the other week. All in less than 2 years!

 

Indeed. It's easier for them in some respects because they don't have decades of ICE investment to try and milk dry, but even so, love em or hate em they are the most forward looking automotive brand at this point, and certainly one of the most valuable. They still make mistakes - I still don't believe the revised Model 3 will make it to production in Europe with no indicator stalks - but they have looked at cars in a new way and designed from the ground up to take every advantage they can from it being an EV. Legacy auto have generally gone the other way and sought to ease us in to EVs by making cars that are as close to the faimilar ICE models that we are used to in the past, just with a different powerplant. Right now it is looking like going more radical is paying off - just ask VW Group's accountants...

[Erfolg]

MatyB, I was quoting an article, with  respect to proportional battery value. On reflection the concept that some manufacturers are loosing money on EVs, has been true, maybe still true. The question why would that happen, it seems in the case of the BMW i3 was a case in point. Then some have been producing EVs to achieve quotes. These sort of things do confuse the waters as to true costs of batteries, never mind manufacturing infrastructures, design costs.

 

In the mean time the VAG Group, Mercedes, BMW, Peugeot etc have their existing manufacturing plants to economically run down. Then think of the other suppliers such as ZF, are they dead in the water, or did they see the righting on the walls?

 

Again from what I have read, at present it makes sense for companies to buy/lease EVs as it is claimed it is tax efficient compared to IC.

 

Nothing at present is crystal clear to me, much of the claims with respect to EVs vehicles, is hype, the difficulties glossed over.   Who should pay for the additional infrastructure seems to be ducked. The additional damage to roads should be paid for by EVs, IMO the user should pay, not the carless old age pensioner, or other similar type of group.

 

I am not anti EVs, nor an enthusiast.

 

 

[Ron Gray]

3 minutes ago, Erfolg said:

much of the claims with respect to EVs vehicles, is hype, the difficulties glossed over. 

Which claims and difficulties are you referring to?

[MattyB]

39 minutes ago, Erfolg said:

MattyB, I was quoting an article, with  respect to proportional battery value. On reflection the concept that some manufacturers are loosing money on EVs, has been true, maybe still true. The question why would that happen, it seems in the case of the BMW i3 was a case in point. Then some have been producing EVs to achieve quotes. These sort of things do confuse the waters as to true costs of batteries, never mind manufacturing infrastructures, design costs.

 

OK, but if you are quoting an article, post the link, that way we can all read it and decide if it is plausible or not. There is so much FUD out there, just saying "I've read an article that says..." doesn't help us anyone understand whether or not it was based on facts and data or jsut made up guesswork.

 

Ultimately whether manufacturers have lost money on a given model of EV is not something that you can say is directly related to the % cost of the battery vs overall vehicle cost. The former (profit on a given model) is based on a myriad of factors (how mature the company is at making EVs, prod volumes, # markets car sold, where manufactured, shiipping costs etc.), whereas the latter (Li ion batt costs per kwh) is a single variable that is well understood - most EV manufacturers get their cells from a relatively small number of mass market specialists in the field, and there are reliable global metrics that track costs over time that are public knowledge.

Edited October 3, 2023 by MattyB

[Tim Kearsley]

42 minutes ago, Erfolg said:

The additional damage to roads should be paid for by EVs, IMO the user should pay, not the carless old age ......

 

 

I think this point about the weight of EV and damage to roads is a bit hyped up by the anti-EV brigade.  There are a good many of the currently fashionable large SUV style of IC vehicles which are as heavy as or heavier than many EV.  I don't have statistics to hand to prove the point but I seem to recall seeing a "league table" recently of the kerb weights of popular models and many large IC vehicles were near the top.

[John Lee]

50 minutes ago, Erfolg said:

Then think of the other suppliers such as ZF, are they dead in the water, or did they see the righting on the walls?

 

 

What's that about? They don't look dead to me.

 

ZF (Zeppelin Factory! It's what they grew out of and they have an interesting museum in Feidrichafen), from their August 2023 Investor statement:

ZF Confirms 2023 Full-Year Outlook, Adjusts Corporate Structure 

• Sales in the first half of 2023 increase to €23.3 billion, adjusted EBIT margin is 4.0 percent
• ZF pushes forward alignment of corporate structures with core business units
• Technology company establishes joint venture with Foxconn for passenger car chassis systems
• ZF confirms full-year outlook for 2023, target is an EBIT margin between 4.7 and 5.2 percent for the full year

 

Friedrichshafen, Germany. In the first half of 2023, ZF stood its ground in a globally challenging and volatile market environment. In the first six months of the year, the company generated sales of €23.3 billion (2022: €21.2 billion), an increase of around 10 percent on the prior-year period. Adjusted EBIT totaled €941 million (2022: €851 million), equivalent to an adjusted EBIT margin of 4.0 percent (2022: 4.0 percent).