Josip Vrandecic -Mes Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 **LINK** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allan Bowker Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Looking at early telemetry data, it doesn't read well. The flight was at 38,000ft cruising around 550mph (average ground speed). @09:30 the altitude fluctuated +/- 50ft @09:31 the flight descended on average over 3,000ft per minute to 6,800ft within 9 minutes Last ping was at 09:40:36 zulu Edited By Allan Bowker on 24/03/2015 12:18:59 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avtur Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Very sad, tragic loss of life. Recovery is going to be very difficult due to remote nature of crash site, hope they find the 'black boxes' as soon as possible so the cause can be identified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wright Stuff Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Yes, it certainly underlines just how trivial our model 'accidents' are. My thoughts are with all of the friends and families of the victims. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Hopkin Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 It sounds remarkably like the French Airbus that went down in the Atlantic a few years ago, was crusiing at 35,000 on autopilot - airspeed pitot tube icing was too much for the pitot heaters - so no airspeed reading - auto pilot goes to manual control (without an airspeed it cant work out what to do) - Pilot on a break, co-pilot gives pulls back on the stick - plane stalls (the black box showed the stall warning alarm was on for 53 seconds before being overridden) drops like a stone, crew still giving it back stick, took 3 minutes to hit the Atlantic in a vertical belly landing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Marsh Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 There's not much left, the pieces are about a few inches so must've gone it a fair speed, and unsurviable. Interestingly, it had a maintenance check yesterday, so the BEA will be going there now and starting their investigation there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Miller Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Black boxes been found. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Harris - Moderator Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Posted by Dave Hopkin on 24/03/2015 15:11:40: It sounds remarkably like the French Airbus that went down in the Atlantic a few years ago, was crusiing at 35,000 on autopilot - airspeed pitot tube icing was too much for the pitot heaters - so no airspeed reading - auto pilot goes to manual control (without an airspeed it cant work out what to do) - Pilot on a break, co-pilot gives pulls back on the stick - plane stalls (the black box showed the stall warning alarm was on for 53 seconds before being overridden) drops like a stone, crew still giving it back stick, took 3 minutes to hit the Atlantic in a vertical belly landing ...except that was at night with no external visual references. Probably better to wait and see what the flight data recorders reveal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kc Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Lots of informed speculation here Rather better than news programmes. Note the reference to Lipos on page 12...... Edited By kc on 24/03/2015 19:23:20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill_B Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 There's a lot of speculative 'bull' on there too, the page count was over 20 at one point so plenty of moderator pruning (pun not intended) going on. LiPos? Where's my tin foil hat...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Area 51 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Appears to be a controlled descent into terrain, no one would do this if awake... No calls.. No squawk 7700.. No deviation from original track even though losing height over the Alps.. Lets hope Airbus / Lufthansa review the blackboxes and report to the media ASAP RIP all those those travelling this service Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erfolg Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I am guessing that that very few people have a good idea of all the events. Initially, the BBC News Channel was saying that prior to the crash the aircraft had declared an emergency. Then it was stated that it was not known if this was via a std, enunciator activation or if the crew had made verbal contact. Later, this aspect was quitely dropped. It could be, and is almost certain, that far more is known by Lufthansa and the some of the authorities, such as the nationalities of all on board, than they will say at the moment. I would expect that some things that are thought to be known, possibly known will be withheld until a fuller understanding of what, why, who played what part, are fully understood and the consequences that stem from this understanding. This aspect of the news will be managed. It could be like the Air France Airbus, that many airline pilots have some idea of some or a specific problem, which could be a significant contributor to what has happened. Although it will be some time probably until it is decided to make public. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Hopkin Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Well at least on this one recovering the black boxes should be relatively simple and as its in very dense radar covered part of the world they will have full radar tracks to interweave with the flight recorder data As it appears to have been descending consistently (when it shouldn't have been) I would have assumed French ATC would have queried its flight pattern with the crew when the noticed an unauthorised descent - not heard any mention of that at all (assuming no emergency was declared by the crew) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josip Vrandecic -Mes Posted March 24, 2015 Author Share Posted March 24, 2015 A few minutes ago I heard ,on German tv, that unfortunate plane the day before spent on repairing a nose door wheel.... responsible person said that the defect was rectified. All in all..... too much speculation in the media Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Marsh Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 This panel, if they can find it would be first thing to rule one theory out - Seems that the pilots never seemed to be in control, and the aircraft came out of autopilot and flew into the ground - one the same heading but not at altitude. We can't speculate, but this is one logical possibility... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Leighfield Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 This happened only 15 minutes after take-off and the descent began 2 minutes after reaching cruising altitude 38,000 ft. It took 8 minutes to come down, plenty of time to send a mayday. Yet apparently they didn't so something is badly wrong here, best not to speculate. There's a lot of shattered families tonight and unbearable heartbreak, that's quite enough to think about for me. What a dreadful day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Ashton Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I don't think that panel will help, that's the cabin pressure settings (Boeing) and I doubt that will still be holding data and very much doubt much of it will remain as it's over the pilot's heads, but it's settings I would hope to be recorded in the flight data recorder and also the audio from the pre flight checks. We can speculate all we want, just think what was going through their minds as it was falling, some news reports say they were trying to restart both engines but with that height why did they not turn away from the Alps as well. Lets just hope they find the cause and we can learn from it. Horrible day, I've not mentioned this at home, wife hates flying and we fly next week. It's so bad for her to think what's going on around the world she doesn't watch the news. http://forums.modelflying.co.uk/sites/3/images/member_albums/62568/591172.jpg Edited By Steve Ashton on 24/03/2015 23:31:51 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onetenor Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I'll bet every one of us would know what to do in a stall situation Yes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill_B Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Posted by onetenor on 25/03/2015 04:31:10: I'll bet every one of us would know what to do in a stall situation Yes? Why say that, no stall occurred. The flight radar traces show it flying on a steady course until impact into the mountain side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Jefferies Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Speculation, speculation...... We know it is wrong, pointless even, but we all do it. I think we can rule out double engine failure because if both engines failed it would probably glide with a rate of descent of around 1500 - 2000 ft/min. and it descended at a much greater rate than that. The indications seem to be that it was an, at least partially, controlled emergency descent (for whatever reason) and for some reason it did not pull out........ So what are the likely reasons for an emergency descent? The one most commonly practiced in the simulator is loss of cabin pressure but on it's own that would not cause what has happened......... Unless perhaps the pilots did not don their oxygen masks or maybe their oxygen supply was empty or in some way faulty? Another reason for an emergency descent could be some kind of structural failure, which may also have caused the loss of cabin pressure. A door, cargo hold or some other hatch blowing open would do it. This is what happened to the DC10 that crashed in Paris in 1974......... A cargo door had not been properly closed and under pressure it blew open. With the sudden loss of pressure beneath the cabin floor the cabin floor collapsed, taking with it the elevator control and no doubt a lot else as well. Much was learned from that accident and door closing mechanisms and control systems have been extensively redesigned so that in theory such a chain of events could not happen again but the point I am trying to make is that in a catastrophic failure, you can never be sure what other systems might be taken out as a consequence........ I heard at least two reports from people on the ground, who had heard but not seen the accident, that they thought it was a small earthquake. From my limited experience of being in an earthquake, they may have heard a kind of "rumbling" sound and if so, that could indicate either a door or hatch coming open or possibly detachment of some panel, hatch or even a control surface. I did hear that the Americans had said that it was unlikely to have been caused by terrorism. How can they say that at this stage unless perhaps they know something that they are trying to hush up. I'm afraid we live in an age in which the possibility of a terrorist attack cannot be discounted at this stage in the investigation. Why did the pilots not call ATC? My guess would be that they just about got the descent sorted out and then passed out due to lack of oxygen. ALL of this is pure speculation and I'm afraid we are just going to have to wait and see what comes out of the investigation. Paul There Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Miller Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 One aviation expert said that if they were decending because they had lost cabin pressure they would have come down much faster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Jefferies Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Peter, it would be possible to descend faster but if you have, or suspect, structural damage, you would restrict your airspeed which would also limit the rate of descent. Paul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dai Fledermaus Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 It's the way the aircraft has completely disintegrated which has surprised me. Perhaps it's because we haven't seen an over view of the crash site, but there appears to be no large sections, like the tail for example. I couldn't possibly speculate, but is this unusual? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perttime Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 If it hit the mountain side at some speed, the lack of large pieces isn't surprising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Hopkin Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 I think thats just the fault of the view that have been released so far, there will be huge lumps somewhere, even if those are just the engines - how much of the comparatively fragile fuselage would remain intact would I am giessing be a combination of impact speed, attitude at impact and the ground shape, remaining fuel etc - if it impacted into a very steep cliff the fuselage would tend to telescope in on itself and if the fuel blew then....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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