The big question, WHEN

[tigerman]

So what is the reckoning on when will be allowed to fly again .I am hoping it is sooner then latter but you can not tell .This country seems to want to hold this lock down for as long has it can but I can see the general public are slowly telling the government enough is enough .Right or wrong the Government surly will have to easy the lock down soon

[kc]

Getting out in the sun will do us good if we keep the distance from the others. We will have to get out of the habit of shaking hands when we meet someone we have not met for some time though!

[Cuban8]

From a modelling/flying perspective, I've written off this year and don't expect to be model flying until 2021 - any better outcome will be a bonus, TBH as much as I miss the flying and social side it's not a top priority. On the wider scale, my guess is that a phased return to normal for businesses will be put in place within a couple of months, perhaps based on age/ state of health and how many further deaths will be considered to be acceptable and the ability of the NHS to cope with a possible spike in illnesses.

On the modelling side again, look at your own club's age demographic, this year is it really worth taking a risk by gathering groups of over 60s, many with existing health problems, together for the sake of a couple of hours flying or worse still, club meetings/ bring and buys etc even if it was permitted?

 

Edited By Cuban8 on 29/04/2020 09:56:44

[SR 71]

I have just read that a new strain of the virus has appeared in France that is attacking children, lets stay in lock down for as long as it takes, model flying is insignificant

Unless you want another 25,000 dead and counting,

[Keith Sharples]

This situation is very fluid and in the end when the lockdown starts to lift (more than likely in a phased way) it is still down to individuals to start to do some things or not. I am a photographic judge and lecturer and I have canceled all my bookings until at least February next year and if this lockdown carries on much longer it will be September next Year. I'm desperate to get out on the sticks but I value my life, my loved ones lives and the life of others much much more not to mix to early. So a waiting game.

Edited By Keith Sharples on 29/04/2020 10:05:45

[flight1]

Well it's the consequences of it's 'all about covid 19', I suspect far more people will die of other non related illness as all the elective and other testing has been put on hold delaying diagnoses and timely treatment.

We need to get on, healthy people should be let out to work with certain measures taken, like social distancing we got in the supermarkets now extended to all business/shops , ware masks on all public transport with restrictions of numbers. Go flying if you want to, but keeping social distancing there too. the risk would be low

life must and will go on, but i do feel I am getting a bit paranoid about it

Edited By flight1 on 29/04/2020 10:23:09

[Jon H]

I think a slight easing could work.

For example, you book a time window at the field and the club can set it up so there is only a controlled number of people on the field at any one time. Perhaps we fly alone so there is nobody in the pilots box with you? Admittedly this might mean that you only get 1 or 2 hours on the field and you have to get your flights in quickly but it would be better than nothing and it would still keep everyone safe.

I am sure that bikers would like to get out on the road too without getting busted for non essential travel. If they ride from home in a big loop without stopping that would be safe enough.

I guess the problem with easing things slightly is that some would just throw it all out the window and assume everything was back to normal.

[J D 8]

My friend of over sixty years, since we first went to infants school on a rickety old WW2 Bedford bus has been taken by the Covid 19.

I was unable to attend the funeral due to being vulnerable.

I was only able to stand at the side of the country road as the hearse went by.

I returned home only to find two noobs/idiots with backpacks crossing my land and to say I lost my rag would be an understatement.

Hold fast.

John.

[Nigel R]

SR71, is it not a side effect of C19 that is affecting kids? giving them an induced heart condition or similar? I think pre-existing medical conditions are linked.

edit: story is here, pre-existing condition is mentioned

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/nhs-warns-of-rise-in-children-with-new-illness-that-may-be-linked-to-coronavirus

 

My take:

We're already on for another 20000 dead before this first lockdown period ends. This first period, June at the earliest. Schools back first along with businesses reopening in a phased fashion.

Any over 70s can expect to remain under some restrictions until vaccine comes; another year plus.

The game changes if we find a really, really good palliative drug, or a vaccine arrives earlier.

The big problem with remaining under indefinite lockdown is that deaths from economic slowdown have to be weighed up against deaths from C19.

Edited By Nigel R on 29/04/2020 10:38:07

[Nigel R]

Sorry to hear that John. Before this is over we will all likely lose someone close.

A number of locals (kids at same school) have lost parents or uncles/aunts.

"I am sure that bikers would like to get out on the road too without getting busted for non essential travel. If they ride from home in a big loop without stopping that would be safe enough."

Cycling for exercise has always been ok. Obviously there are some chumps who go out in groups and give the rest of us a bad name, but riding individually or with family members is perfectly ok. This has been providing a very welcome release from the house for us and our two offspring.

[Jon H]

Posted by Nigel R on 29/04/2020 10:33:57:

"I am sure that bikers would like to get out on the road too without getting busted for non essential travel. If they ride from home in a big loop without stopping that would be safe enough."

Cycling for exercise has always been ok.

Yea it was motorbikes i was talking about. A friend has been told off for taking his bike out for a spin as it was considered non essential.

I am in the same boat in some respects. I have been offered a model and i am happy to go and collect it. The model will be left in the front garden so i dont have to contact the chap, and i will only get out of my car to pick it up before i drive home. It will be safe enough, but it is technically not allowed.

[flight1]

Damned if you do, damned if you don't comes to mind , the pure Unknown speculation of what the right decision will be only time will reveal.

well on a cheary note the sun just come out here and the dog knows and is staring at me, so i'm off to clear my head

[Nigel R]

"it was motorbikes i was talking about. "

oops!

[Cuban8]

Double whammy for me on the motorcycling front. My new T100 Bonneville was going to get so much use this year but is now relegated to the fortnightly five mile round trip to the Supermarket for shopping. Better than nothing and although I'm surrounded by deserted country lanes that I could use against the rules without being noticed, there's no way that I'd be so selfish.

[Michael Barclay]

I see no reason why responsible adults should not be able to fly if social distancing rules are obeyed. Statistics show that only 1% of cases result from outdoor contact. If anyone comes within ten feet of me they are met with a raised hand and told to keep thier distance. Same would apply at the field.

[Jon H]

Posted by Cuban8 on 29/04/2020 11:16:24:

there's no way that I'd be so selfish.

Is it selfish? You would not be putting anyone at risk and as we are all told mental health is a big issue these days. Instead of taking the direct route to the shops take a slightly longer one. 

The only argument i have heard which holds up is that if you fell off you would be adding work to an already stressed NHS, and thats fair enough. I know speeding has been rife during lockdown so as usual the cretins are ruining things for the rest of us.

I appreciate that the physical health of population is the focus but tempers are fraying with the continued confinement. There was a free and frank exchange of views between two neighbours on my street this weekend and i suspect it was partly due to the lockdown stress.

As Michael points out keeping our distance in an open field should not be an issue. We all manage at the supermarket.

 

Edited By Jon - Laser Engines on 29/04/2020 11:48:18

[Gary Manuel]

Careful guys!

The second and subsequent waves of Covid-19 will spread much quicker than the first wave because it's already distributed throughout the country. I think we've only seen the beginning of it, with well under 1% of the population affected so far.

Edited By Gary Manuel on 29/04/2020 12:02:54

[kc]

When you get to be over 70 you realise there is no point in waiting for next year to do something -if you don't do it now by the time next year comes other health issues may stop you doing it anyway. So I am not intending to waste this year! I need to fly, need to see my friends and need to go somewhere for a holiday this year.  Obviously taking all sensible distancing and cleaning precautions.  Otherwise it's just sitting at home waiting to die!.

Edited By kc on 29/04/2020 12:24:05

[Bob Cotsford]

BellRinger, I think you need to read kc's comment again. For a goodly number of us doing something next year is a nebulous concept that may prove impractical when next year comes around. Yes we need to exercise considerable caution but we need to consider the needs of all elements of society.

[J D 8]

Thank you Nigel R. I am sure most people are sensible but as you say it's the chumps like the ones I confronted who had come from many miles away [ accents gave them away ] who spoil it for all others. I have no problem with local walkers, runners, cyclists or even motor bikes.

Here in Pembrokeshire there is a lot of bad feeling among locals due to many from away coming to their holiday homes at this time.

We have very limited services and it is very often the case that even folk with routine medical needs have to make long journey's to the next county or Swansea for treatment.

kc, You should think again.

[Nigel R]

"Here in Pembrokeshire there is a lot of bad feeling among locals due to many from away coming to their holiday homes at this time"

Can understand why. Everyone was told stay put, don't take it to another community. Lots of entitled idiots then proceeded to ignore the instruction and do just that.

We're all buying time for a proper vaccine to come around, group effort, all of us, bar none.

[Paul Marsh]

Will be next year, the government is saying that no holidays, even in the UK should go ahead and will the the last restrictions to be lifted. So I don't see any model shows happening this year. Nationals, I doubt it, maybe Weston in October, but give it 30% of it going ahead.

[flight1]

Well if we are waiting for a vaccine to come don't hold your breath it be two years at least before mass release , so in a few weeks people will need to start going out with sensible measure based on the the personnel risk they are prepared to take, if you want to self isolate then thats each individuals decision here to isolate themselves at home. this flue bug will rear it's ugly head next flue season, that's a guarantee. Spain is starting to let people out now as the economy is going to colapse otherwise there is a balance to be made, but noboddy want's to go before it's time ,but we need to live before that happens.

mass public transport/ very large gatherings /planes are the big speader and needs to restricted and watched closely to keep it at bay for now

may be we need to startdoing this when we get home

https://www.facebook.com/amazingfunnyvids/videos/507292733285339/

Edited By flight1 on 29/04/2020 14:24:12

Edited By flight1 on 29/04/2020 14:24:46

[Nigel R]

Spain is "lifting" restrictions to approximately what we have here now.

[flight1]

yes spain is lifting retrictiosn in stages and are playing it by ear so if cases don't increase they keep going, a bit like i said limiting numbers etc, we will see