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Electric Cars.


Cuban8
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I can't see the infrastructure is in place, or has any sign of being in place any time soon, to make EVs viable for the masses, at a reasonable cost - in order to get sufficient return on their investment the manufacturers are obliged to target the high end of the market, with price tags to match.

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On 11/05/2022 at 22:06, Tim Kearsley said:

Well we've just installed a 4kW PV array, inverter and 5 kWh battery for under £10k.  The charger cost around £500.  Would you like to tell us where your figure of £30k comes from or was it plucked out of thin air?  I really wish we could stick to something vaguely factual.

£10k was the exact best price I was quoted for a similar installation last year (just before energy prices went daft). This was for a GivEnergy Hybrid system with 5kWp array. It was also at a time when AgileOctopus tarif was available, which meant that in theory, you could buy cheap (or even free) energy at night, store it in the battery and then sell it at peak times. I calculated that I would save somewhere between £500 and £1000 per year on electricity (without the AgileOctupus tarif, the annual saving was less than £500 per year).

This appears impressive at first glance but you need to dig a little deeper before taking the plunge. Over 10 years the system "might" just pay for itself i.e. 10 x £1000 per year saving = £10,000. At this point I would have saved £10k on bills, have a bank balance of £0 and a life expired system (?) which may or may not be capable of producing energy. i.e. I would have broken even but not have much to show for it. On the other hand, if I invested my £10k wisely and got easily achievable 5% compounded interest on it, I would have £16,470 in the bank. I'm actually currently getting up to 7% interest on my investment, which equates to £20,096 over 10 years i.e. £1000 a year saving plus I will still have my original capital. It was a "no-brainer" at the time, so I didn't purchase the system.

The "temporary?" energy price rise obviously affects the situation, but I didn't have a crystal ball to predict this.

I'd love to invest in a Solar system, have an electric car I can charge cheaply at night and do my bit for the human race (the planet will be fine regardless). Unfortunately, the figures just don't add up and will never add up unless the government introduce incentives to help us all to do our bit.

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Driving around with petrol at 2€ a litre is actually saving me money ? no one on the roads, no traffic jams and

no driving around for ages looking for a parking spot, and a lot of people seem only to go to the supermarkets to fill their caddy's, no short trips for the toilet paper any more,,,

 

 So if the government wants to go 'green' it petrol prices that will do the job,,,

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, cymaz said:

With all the rage of going electric, there’s only a finite supply of lithium for the battery? Are they recyclable? How much energy is used to recycle them and what other battery chemistry could replace it.

 

 I’ve still got some reservations. Heavy goods vehicles used a lot more energy than Mrs Miggins going out in her Leaf. There is a lot of pollution caused by tyre wear and brake dust...presumably this will still continue.

 

Yes, the batteries are now highly recycleable, and they can aslo be used in "second life" applications like running lifts, power banks etc once they have too little capacity for use as EV batteries. The Fully Charged channel has some content on this if you want to know more, but the tyre wear and brake wear issue is actually quite a big one that is not easily solved whichever propulsion is chosen...

 

 

Edited by MattyB
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ron Gray said:

The way I see it is that manufacturers have seen the early EV push as a way of making more money, in other words the vast majority available now are aimed at those who are happy to, and do not need to, think twice about paying a lot of money so that they can ‘wear the green badge’, green upmanship if you like. I know that this doesn’t apply to all but why else are manufacturers targeting that end of the market rather than the masses?

 

There is an element of truth in that in terms of the models manufacturers are choosing to make at thsi point (large SUVs which their research says are more profitable), but it is also an oversimplification. The key issue at this point is that the costs of EV manufacturer are higher than IC due to the tech required and supply chain issues, and small EVs are disproportianately expensive as they still require all of the same tech, just a slightly smaller battery. This will get better with time, but we are probably all going to hae to accept that the cost of motoring is going to go up in the zero emissions era, whatever we choose to drive (EV, hydrogen or some other future technology).

Edited by MattyB
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12 minutes ago, Gary Manuel said:

£10k was the exact best price I was quoted for a similar installation last year (just before energy prices went daft). This was for a GivEnergy Hybrid system with 5kWp array. It was also at a time when AgileOctopus tarif was available, which meant that in theory, you could buy cheap (or even free) energy at night, store it in the battery and then sell it at peak times. I calculated that I would save somewhere between £500 and £1000 per year on electricity (without the AgileOctupus tarif, the annual saving was less than £500 per year).

This appears impressive at first glance but you need to dig a little deeper before taking the plunge. Over 10 years the system "might" just pay for itself i.e. 10 x £1000 per year saving = £10,000. At this point I would have saved £10k on bills, have a bank balance of £0 and a life expired system (?) which may or may not be capable of producing energy. i.e. I would have broken even but not have much to show for it. On the other hand, if I invested my £10k wisely and got easily achievable 5% compounded interest on it, I would have £16,470 in the bank. I'm actually currently getting up to 7% interest on my investment, which equates to £20,096 over 10 years i.e. £1000 a year saving plus I will still have my original capital. It was a "no-brainer" at the time, so I didn't purchase the system.

 

I see what you are saying about it not being the best financial investment you could make, but the section in bold is not really true.

 

Yes, you may well have a life expired battery system, but the PV would have another 15 years in it at that point. By the time our battery system expires in 10 years we will definitely have an EV with V2G capability, so I doubt we will  need to replace it at all. Even if we did I fully expect the prices of those to have gone down in the intervening period as volumes increase. Also whilst you are right that no-one has a crystal ball re: future energy prices, look a the factors that are going to come into play in the next decade - mandated reduction in CO2 emissions for grid power and vehicles, political turmoil around Russia and almost all of our current domestic nuclear baseload going end of life. With that context it is hard how prices can return to previous levels, so in the med/long term it is highly likely we will be paying more for our energy from the grid as  % of income. Being as energy independent as you can therefore does make sense even if the numbers are not as compelling a financial case as a stock market investment.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Tim Kearsley said:

Well a PV system certainly isn't expired after 10 years.  Also, I'd really be interested to know where I can invest my money and get 7% return without - to me - unacceptable risk. 

Yes, there's a risk with any form of investment. The 7% I referred to is with Kuflink Auto IF-ISA, though there are many others out there. The risk is acceptable to me, but it may not be to others. As always, do your own research and understand the risks.

You are right that the system will probably have some life left in it after 10 years, but then it won't have a guaranteed life as the guarantee will have run out, so that in itself is a risk that needs to be understood.

Edited by Gary Manuel
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MattyB said:

 

I see what you are saying about it not being the best financial investment you could make, but the section in bold is not really true.

 

Yes, you may well have a life expired battery system, but the PV would have another 15 years in it at that point. By the time our battery system expires in 10 years we will definitely have an EV with V2G capability, so I doubt we will  need to replace it at all. Even if we did I fully expect the prices of those to have gone down in the intervening period as volumes increase. Also whilst you are right that no-one has a crystal ball re: future energy prices, look a the factors that are going to come into play in the next decade - mandated reduction in CO2 emissions for grid power and vehicles, political turmoil around Russia and almost all of our current domestic nuclear baseload going end of life. With that context it is hard how prices can return to previous levels, so in the med/long term it is highly likely we will be paying more for our energy from the grid as  % of income. Being as energy independent as you can therefore does make sense even if the numbers are not as compelling a financial case as a stock market investment.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that Solar Panels don't make sense. I just couldn't justify it at the time. Circumstances have changed and I'm continually weighing up the pros and cons. The thing that would swing it for me is if the government did what they should do (needs to do?) in order to reach their CO2 targets and offered financial incentives. Half price solar panels anyone?

Edited by Gary Manuel
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Gary Manuel said:

£10k was the exact best price I was quoted for a similar installation last year (just before energy prices went daft). This was for a GivEnergy Hybrid system with 5kWp array. It was also at a time when AgileOctopus tarif was available, which meant that in theory, you could buy cheap (or even free) energy at night, store it in the battery and then sell it at peak times. I calculated that I would save somewhere between £500 and £1000 per year on electricity (without the AgileOctupus tarif, the annual saving was less than £500 per year).

This appears impressive at first glance but you need to dig a little deeper before taking the plunge. Over 10 years the system "might" just pay for itself i.e. 10 x £1000 per year saving = £10,000. At this point I would have saved £10k on bills, have a bank balance of £0 and a life expired system (?) which may or may not be capable of producing energy. i.e. I would have broken even but not have much to show for it. On the other hand, if I invested my £10k wisely and got easily achievable 5% compounded interest on it, I would have £16,470 in the bank. I'm actually currently getting up to 7% interest on my investment, which equates to £20,096 over 10 years i.e. £1000 a year saving plus I will still have my original capital. It was a "no-brainer" at the time, so I didn't purchase the system.

The "temporary?" energy price rise obviously affects the situation, but I didn't have a crystal ball to predict this.

I'd love to invest in a Solar system, have an electric car I can charge cheaply at night and do my bit for the human race (the planet will be fine regardless). Unfortunately, the figures just don't add up and will never add up unless the government introduce incentives to help us all to do our bit.

 

I think this is misleading to be fair.  Yes, you'll have ~£20k in the bank, but you will also have paid out 10 years of fuel cost.  Also, you've not taken any account of inflation.  What will your £20k be worth in 10 years' time?  Do you really think these price rises we're seeing will be temporary?  Solar panels will continue to generate power long past 10 years, so the savings continue to accumulate.

 

Thanks for the info on the investment BTW.  As you say, what suits one doesn't suit another.  For me, tying money up for five years with capital at risk and not covered by the FSCS isn't what I want to do.  It's a good return though! Any "safe" investments don't keep up with inflation. 

 

P.S. My calculation gives £10,000 at 10 years 7% compound as £19,671 but I could be wrong!

 

Edit - Apologies - just realised you're spot on if interest is paid monthly!

Edited by Tim Kearsley
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2 hours ago, Tim Kearsley said:

Just checked back through our paperwork and the panels we had installed in January have a 15-year product warranty and 25-year performance warranty. 

Its the LiFePO4 batteries and inverter equipment guarantee that is limited to 10 years.

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2 hours ago, Tim Kearsley said:

 

I think this is misleading to be fair.  Yes, you'll have ~£20k in the bank, but you will also have paid out 10 years of fuel cost.  Also, you've not taken any account of inflation.  What will your £20k be worth in 10 years' time?  Do you really think these price rises we're seeing will be temporary?  Solar panels will continue to generate power long past 10 years, so the savings continue to accumulate.

 

Thanks for the info on the investment BTW.  As you say, what suits one doesn't suit another.  For me, tying money up for five years with capital at risk and not covered by the FSCS isn't what I want to do.  It's a good return though! Any "safe" investments don't keep up with inflation. 

 

P.S. My calculation gives £10,000 at 10 years 7% compound as £19,671 but I could be wrong!

 

Edit - Apologies - just realised you're spot on if interest is paid monthly!

Actually, your calculation is correct. I accidentally left the calculator set to monthly interest after the 5% calculation. The 7% one is paid at the end of each year.

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Doctor Dai sends me regular email E&T magazine articles, the battery seminar being one some time ago...

 

Anyway, Octopus Energy and a Morrocan partner propose sending output from a large solar farm to UK via under sea cable system.

 

Perhaps the rest of the equatorial desert region countries will follow suit.

 

Coastal desalination plants pumping fresh water inland to produce crops and fruits etc., Grow food and export electricity as well ?

 

Hopefully some real joined up thinking happening....

 

No need for the very religious countries to "go nuclear" after all perhaps ?

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Is that a costed proposal with financial backing, or a back of a fag packet blue yonder thought.

Also, the mindset that you allude to in your last sentence, do you want to be hostage to it. Gas from the east springs to mind, petrol from Saudi Arabia, et al.

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To power heat pumps, freeing that energy for cars perhaps ?

 

Imaging if that whole equatorial desert belt did similar stuff...

 

This was proposed/ commented on in a TV discussion...in the 1970's !

 

Wish I could remember what the program was called, surely I am not the only person to remember it ?

 

Lady questioner and 3 male panelists...

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Hostage to it, we already are, french electricity et Al.

 

Try getting anything built in this country, nimbies crawl out from everywhere...

 

Iran....

 

Dr.Dai, an old friend since primary school. Yes, amazingly I do have friends, i can join dots and even think...

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9 hours ago, Rich Griff said:

Dr.Dai, an old friend since primary school. Yes, amazingly I do have friends, i can join dots and even think...

Yes I do have trouble joining the dots you provide and trying to work out what you mean. Dr Dai for example I had no idea he was a friend of yours and wasted my time on the E&T site looking for references to him. 

 

9 hours ago, Rich Griff said:

Iran....

Joining the dots I take it that 'very religious countries' is code for Iran. No that does not make sense as they already use nuclear power. 

 

9 hours ago, Rich Griff said:

Hostage to it, we already are, french electricity et Al.

I don't have a clue what this means, but there again I never was very good at riddles.

 

Please make allowances for people who struggle to join the dots by explaining what you mean.

 

Steve

 

 

 

 

 

 

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