The big question, WHEN

[Gary Manuel]

Yes I've had a look at the FT excess death figures. 43k (rather than 30k) is around what I suspected due to lack of testing of all people who have died. I suspect that even this figure is lower than the actual number. Time will tell.

The problem with looking at the number of deaths is that this takes several weeks to manifest itself. It will be a number of weeks before the death toll associated with people ignoring the lock down will be known. For now, the first indication that things are going wrong is the number of confirmed cases. I'll be watching the graph I posted above. This will decide whether I go out to play or not once Boris says I can.

P.S. At the risk of bringing politics into it, I can't help feeling that Nicola has the right approach at the moment. We need to tread carefully and not be driven by media / commercial pressure.

[i12fly]

A big question is now -what is the strategy, herd immunity or reduction of the virus to zero?

If it is herd immunity, the original thought, then lots more people need to get it, so release from lockdown enough to keep the levels up but within the NHS capacity, will be the strategy. Cynical but possible.

I hope the reduction to zero is now the focus, if that is possible. Boris, having experienced it first hand, appears to favour this -we'll see on Sunday.

Personally as I see it, the virus is still out there and with limited effective treatment, so for me as a vulnerable person social isolation/lockdown will continue.

For the courageous NHS staff it is like a war zone, the stress must be immense. But they are not trained like armed forces and wouldn't expect an extreme situation like this when they 'signed up'. They deserve all our support (and a medal)

[SR 71]

And a pay rise

[David Davis]

The restrictions are being relaxed in my part of France w.e.f 12th May so we should be able to go flying soon.

Our club president is just waiting to hear from the FFAM, the equivalent of the BMFA, before calling a meeting to inform us what we can and what we can't do under the new arrangements.

[Former Member]

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[Former Member]

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[Michael Barclay]

Posted by Steve J on 08/05/2020 08:57:46:

Posted by Gary Manuel on 07/05/2020 22:04:47:

I'll be watching the graph I posted above. This will decide whether I go out to play or not once Boris says I can.

That is your decision. I will be out as soon as I am released from house arrest.

Me too. Have four new builds witing to be maidened.

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

Posted by Steve J on 08/05/2020 08:57:46:

Posted by Gary Manuel on 07/05/2020 22:04:47:

I'll be watching the graph I posted above. This will decide whether I go out to play or not once Boris says I can.

That is your decision. I will be out as soon as I am released from house arrest.

Yes, me and my family as well, all got left out working till the very end, some still out. Mind how you go folks.

Is there a graph to show how many workers fell to Covid ? We get something on NHS ones but others ?

Edited By john stones 1 on 08/05/2020 11:10:53

[Michael Barclay]

"The Scottish government has turned to crowdsourcing to come up with ideas to ease the coronavirus lockdown, setting up a website inviting people to debate the way forward. Are any of the ideas any good, and will they make any difference? "

It seems so far lots of support for opening Golf courses. Great. If that were to happen I don't see how they could keep flying fields closed.

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

Asking fellow Countrymen/women what they think, open to ideas from other people ? Communication ? What a novel Idea, It'll not catch on in England.

Nicola has been pretty good throughout all this.

[McG 6969]

John et all,

Here are some worldwide graphs, but you can just choose your country and it provides a lot of detailed info.

As for hopefully educated UK citizens, I don't understand you guys.

Are your toy planes to maiden or your motorbikes to show off more important than the sour facts > 30K+ death so far, the largest daily increase of mortality in Europe. About double that of Spain & Italy and about triple that of Germany & France...

... and I thought UK was the most educated and disciplined country around... but maybe those schoolbooks need a rewrite as well, then...

Stay safe, gents

Chris

[SR 71]

Plus 1 Chris,

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

To answer that Chris would be going into politics, so I'll leave it be. 4 family members still working, 1 in a care home, one setting up our test center, not a test been done on one of them, in it together ?

[Former Member]

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[john stones 1 - Moderator]

My comment on Nicola was purely on her leadership and messaging, now pick a bit to attack, and don't put your words in my mouth.

[flight1]

Posted by john stones 1 on 08/05/2020 12:52:11:

My comment on Nicola was purely on her leadership and messaging, now pick a bit to attack, and don't put your words in my mouth.

The fact that they have higher death rate proberly does reflect on leaderships control of the situation , saying what one want's to hear does not deal with the situations at hand, even though the words might make us feel better for that moment.

HOld on! Hold on! i've mentioned politics , i will mute up and cower in the corner with my bad spelling

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

Nope it doesn't, many factors will play a part, age of population for one, unless you want to read numbers to fit your narrative ? see what you want to see. Maybe show me a Graph.

The Scots have said repeatedly, they have an aging population during the last 3 years, other factors will play a part, who has the most dead ? You can play that game yourselves.

Nicola, well I'm not an SNP fan, but the Scots elected her and she appears pretty capable to me.

Just got home from work, traffic seems heavy, plenty people out, I have been drinking Lucozade though.

[Geoff S]

Our morning walk is always fairly near to the A38 north of Derby despite the fact it's 90% along field footpaths and we usually cross it on a farm track/footpath bridge. We've noticed recently that the traffic is noticably heavier over the past week or so. Of course that's only snapshots at around 11am so not much can be read into it but I'm always happy to see a fair share of commercial vehicles because, despite everything, the economy supports the public services that have become so vital.

Our regular local bus service seems to have stopped running. I hope very much not permanently because we usually walk the 2.5 miles one way then use the bus to get home with heavy shopping. Though we've taken to doing one big shop/fortnight very early (for us!) in the 8am to 9am old folks hour at Sainsbury's and we use the car for that. In fact it's the only running the car gets and I've taken to driving a slightly long way round home just to give it a decent run both to charge the battery and make sure it gets properly warmed up.

If any easing of the lockdown doesn't apply to over 70s I'm suddenly going to be 69 whilst still being sensible.

I know of no-one locally who has caught Covid 19 much less either been hospitalised or died. The woman across the road (40s ish?) said last evening when we were clapping for the NHS she'd had a bad 48 hour spell with flu-like symptoms in early March. That could have been a mild dose of Covid but until there's more relaible and extensive testing for anti-bodies we'll never know how widespread it has been.

Geoff

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

Similar here Geoff, don't shop every week, no chippy or takeaways, wife goes for a paper and some air, rest is sat in garden, good job weathers been o.k.

[J D 8]

As noted on first page post I lost my lifelong friend to the corvid. He died 80 miles from home having not been seen by any of his family for over a month.

Now we have been told today that the mother in law who is in a care home has tested positive for the virus.

Edited By J D 8 on 08/05/2020 22:24:04

[Nigel R]

Sorry to hear JD8

Chris +1

Myself, Looking forward to the numbers dropping enough for us to be let out. Not just being let out.

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

Let out or not, been glorious weather here today, great improvement after the miserable Autumn/Winter, started work on your tans ?

[leccyflyer]

Yep - apparently one of the key things is to get your Vitamin D - so a morning of work in the garden today whilst the weather was glorious, then maybe a wee potter in the workshop over the rest of the weekend now that the rain has arrived.

[Erfolg]

When will we be permitted to fly again? I think we all ponder the question.

Since the first murmurings about the virus, I have gone from passing interest, it is something happening in China, to it ia life threatening and here. We have seen the understanding of the virus go from, it is something roughly like a bad Flu, to something more specific,

I have heard politians state this is not the time to politise the issue, only in the next breath do the very same. For the said same politians state that this is what the government should do, knowing that is what they intended to do. With hindsight critiqising measures that have been taken, that they them selves have either advocated, or supported. We have seen a scramble to be the first to announce changes of policy before the UK Government makes probably the same as discussed policy statement. Even in these times, some politians cannot resist any opportunity to project their assumed superior judgement, Plus we have the scramble for many bodies and councils to claim that the present issues have created deficits, which have been there for some time. Politics is a dirty business, with more than a whiff of hypocrisy.

So when can I go flying again? It depends not just of governmental advice, but my willingness to accept risk. I was told by my daughter that statically the risk to the grandkids is almost infinitely low, approx two children are known to have died. However dad, for you it is thousands of times higher, because you are old, mum having asthma, although younger than you, is in a similar position. So what ever you decide to do, that will remain the situation. Public transport is definitely out, closed environment, as a starter. Then there are all the possibly contaminated surfaces. The discussion went on like this for some time.

It was pointed out to me the UK has a very high population with respect to most European countries, as does the USA. On that basis deaths per 100k are more meaningful. We also have the highest population density in Europe. Although many European cities that have high population densities have some pretty disturbing figures.Yet even these are misleading that many countries have omitted large numbers of deaths, it is suggested that both Spain and Italy have circa 20k (each) omitted. In essence we are at present comparing apples, oranges and bananas with each other. The obvious question was then why do we look at the figure-of total UK deaths. It was a consequence of NHS capacity, and staying within it, that lead to initially Corvid-19 patients in hospital, then how many died etc. In this the UK succeeded unlike Italy and Spain. Some time down the line it will be the number of excess deaths reported internationally that will reveal more. Although some may not be in a rush for clarity in this area. Belgium will not want to stay at the top of the table.

I am waiting for the BMFA to pubically state their view, although given many of us are old, I can imagine some reticence. Who wants to say, you old guys will be at greater risk. Nor will they wish that we stop flying and being members of the BMFA, either due to our deaths, or ceasing modeling. I should imagine that indoor modeling will be a much higher risks to old -a-t-.

I suspect that if I want to fly, I should wear a face mask (most now accept the benefits, with caveats). Being outside the risk is lower, yet distancing will probably still provide some benefits. Only the modeler should handle their equipment, albeit the tX and model etc. Probably my clubs biggest issue is communication with respect to members of the public and low flying aircraft.

To be honest I am not sure I want to fly. I have been dependent on my daughter and son-in-law for small items and Iceland (no slots for the rest) for our bulk shop, when a booking come free. I am probably afraid, as death is permanent..

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

Bewildered ? I am, If you can stay safe and work from home, do so, some others are encouraged to go to work but avoid public transport if possible ?

Sunbathe, play sports with family, what's that mean ? Flyings a sport, can I do it?