The big question, WHEN

[Airhead]

My sixpen’orth…

Lifting of lockdown restrictions will be slow and steady with society’s best arguments (understandably) getting sorted first and unfortunately, model flying has a poor argument and being such a minority hobby, will be way down the list… if we’re on a list at all. And virtually no-one in authority gives a hoot for us, of course. It’s easier just to keep all minority groups under lockdown than sort them all out individually. I’m sure when (if?) we get our restrictions lifted, it will be on an “OK, finally the rest of you can get on with your lives again now,” basis.

There are some good arguments here, John Laser says a slight easing could work and

others say similar things and that we could all do things safely, keep apart at the field etc. but that won’t wash with the powers that be. Just because something can be made safe doesn’t mean it will be condoned. Look at the wealthy peeps that hired a private jet to the South of France a couple of weeks ago with private helicopters standing by to take them on to their villa. No doubt an eye-wateringly expensive trip that I couldn’t have underwritten that turned into a day out, they were turned back by the French authorities, “Allez back to Angleterre mes amis!” (Quite understandable and of course, the French do love a veto!) They may have been able to afford to be safe but they couldn’t be seen to do so when everyone else is tied down. We’re all in it together remember and just because we could fly safely and hygienically, WE can’t do so whilst other hobbies are under lockdown. It’s not as if we can claim we are out exercising, long tramp from carpark to flying line/top of the slope notwithstanding.

Unfortunately, like Nigel R, I too believe there will be many, many more people die of this awful pox before we’re through – if we ever do get through – and I worry about my father who’s 96, so in the vulnerable category, and have already lost a biker mate with suspected C-19 at the tender age of 50. This virus is similar to the common cold and if it turns out that it mutates as readily as the cold and we can catch it again and again, we and the world are in a damn rotten and possibly permanent situation.

On the question of when we will return to work, (I’m in the food industry so I’m lucky, I’m still working) the answer must be ASAP! But the question should not be, “When?”, it’s “How?” What you have to remember is the government doesn’t give a toss about 20,000 peoples’ deaths. It’s a mere drop in the ocean – we’re a nation of millions. As individuals, the members of the government WILL (probably) care and if they can do what’s needed with the minimum of death and suffering, they will but as an entity, the government is there to run the country and the country is presently getting a severe financial kicking. If governments could afford to care about people maybe we wouldn’t have wars, but they must worry about business, production, GDP, employment etc. That’s their job. It may sound harsh but it’s reality – if Boris could send 20,000 more people to their doom but get the country back on a stable, profitable but safe level with the majority of us employed, I’m sure he would. He’d need it NOT be known that that was how it was done of course, and I’m certain, especially having been through the virus himself, he would personally feel bad about the loss of life but his job is to run the country not save lives. His is not an easy position to be in. (OTOH, Maggie T would have done it with a grin on her face. She’d have sacrificed any number of people so long as it made her look heroic and didn’t cost HER anything.)

In defence of the government – not something I say often – there is no ‘right’ course of action. Whatever they do is going to be wrong. If they bang a severe lockdown into force on day 1 and virtually no-one dies but the country goes to the dogs financially, everyone will say, “Oh the virus wasn’t THAT bad…” but if they keep the country buoyant and working but thousands more die, everyone will say that they should have introduced a serious lockdown. They can’t win. And we’re just minority hobbyists… neither can we.

[Chris Walby]

A couple of weeks ago I attended a tele conference where our head of pharmaceutical research gave us engineers a quick 30 minute overview of the situation.

Pharma and world wide governments knew this was a possibility from the previous coronavirus incident - we just got lucky as it developed into a less serious version so blew itself out last time.

Globally there is not sufficient manufacturing capacity to produce a vaccine for everyone in a short time, current manufacturing plants are producing vaccines that are saving lives, a COVID19 might save lives - I'll leave you with that ethical decision. The way forward is to build up stocks of base vaccine material and code it for the virus at the time, bad news it costs money and the produce has a short shelf life. Governments took the view "so what's the social/financial impact of a global pandemic? Don't know then don't do anything"

Whatever is produced has to be absolutely safe to use, not much point if the vaccine has side effects greater than COVID19

IMO - Moving out of lockdown is driven by the capacity of hospitals to help those that catch COVID 19 and the ability to test people to confirm they have had it.

Hope that's some food for thought

[Tim Flyer]

Interesting post Chris...so it looks like some time away I’m afraid.

Luckily my other hobby is cycling so I can still do that to some extent although solo riding isn’t as much fun. . For RC I have resorted to getting some old indoor/outdoor micro helicopters out (I bought them around 2012) and flying inside and in the garden when it’s calm enough. It’s amazing that their old single cell lipos still work !

[Gary Manuel]

Posted by Chris Walby on 29/04/2020 15:43:39:

IMO - Moving out of lockdown is driven by the capacity of hospitals to help those that catch COVID 19 ....

Bang on!.

That's the single most important factor that decides when the restrictions are triggered ON and OFF. It's all in Imperial College Covid-19 report number 9.

Here's a table extracted from it:- (actual numbers and timescales will be different due to more ICU beds being available now).

[Nigel R]

The thing I note from that particular diagram is the amount of "lockdown on" time vs the amount of "no lockdown" time.

The other thing of note from that report is the base assumption of vaccine availability in late 2021.

[Brian Cooper]

On the plus side, I am saving a small fortune.

Three holidays have been cancelled , and I can't begin to calculate the monies saved in the cost of model fuel. . . . and servos. 

Let's hope we can all get our social lives back again soon.

B.C.

Edited By Brian Cooper on 29/04/2020 16:35:13

[Brian Cooper]

Incarcerate criminals, and it is called "locked up".

Incarate innocent people, and it is called "locked down".

Either way, we are still incarcerated.

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

Some interesting comments, many things could be done, but it opens the door and others start going out, responsible adults will get swamped by what about me.

I live by a major road, traffic is nearing normal levels apart from School runs and workers rush hours. Non stop as I type.

2nd or 3rd waves ? Not anything I know about myself, the final wave concerns me more, that's the one where millions of livelyhoods get binned, will the new norm help these people manage ?

Gone back to work myself, and am doing more via a company from the Wirral, so much for retiring, IDS must be well pleased.

Flying ? I would love to go, and to see people again. I'm ready, won't be policing any time slots nor distancing procedures though.

[Gary Manuel]

Posted by Nigel R on 29/04/2020 16:15:31:

The thing I note from that particular diagram is the amount of "lockdown on" time vs the amount of "no lockdown" time.

The other thing of note from that report is the base assumption of vaccine availability in late 2021.

Yes it's scary - but the graph represents turning ALL interventions on and off at once. Careful tweaking of the interventions should result in a longer off time. Presumably, this is what the government are aiming for.

The graph is not intended to end in late 2021. It merely continues until such a time that a treatment or vaccine is found, trialled and manufactured in mass quantities. Late 2021 is probably an optimistic estimation.

[Piers Bowlan]

I wonder what proportion of the population will have had it by Nov-21. There are various theories as to what proportion of the population need to have had it for 'herd immunity' to have been achieved. Discussions on TV have muted figures as low as 60% to as high as 95% of the total population. I guess that like so many other things about this virus, they simply don't know.

Edited By Piers Bowlan on 29/04/2020 17:46:57

[Nigel R]

Depends how much you want the mythical herd immunity to slow down new infection, i guess.

John you are right the legislation has to be directed at stopping the irresponsible.

[FlyinBrian]

Posted by kc on 29/04/2020 12:23:17:

When you get to be over 70 you realise there is no point in waiting for next year to do something -if you don't do it now by the time next year comes other health issues may stop you doing it anyway. So I am not intending to waste this year! I need to fly, need to see my friends and need to go somewhere for a holiday this year. Obviously taking all sensible distancing and cleaning precautions. Otherwise it's just sitting at home waiting to die!.

Edited By kc on 29/04/2020 12:24:05

HEAR. HEAR

I am 73 soon, am on hormone treatment for prostrate cancer and have been referred to an oncologist. I want to go flying before a/ I am too sick to do so or b/ in a box!

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

I keep having trouble getting past angry stages, fearful it'll be survival of the fittest (financially) once the "Norms" back. Millions play their part slowing/controlling then get dumped on the scrap heap ?

I'm ready for out, so are my family, they don't trust society.

Legislation Nigel ? We haven't the numbers to Police normal times, It would be an Impossible task.

Just read Weatherspoons plans to re open, good, I can refuse to spend with his unethical Ilk again.

Flying ? I'm ready, 4 mowers n 5 strimmers, choose your weapon.

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

Posted by FlyinBrian on 29/04/2020 18:12:32:

Posted by kc on 29/04/2020 12:23:17:

When you get to be over 70 you realise there is no point in waiting for next year to do something -if you don't do it now by the time next year comes other health issues may stop you doing it anyway. So I am not intending to waste this year! I need to fly, need to see my friends and need to go somewhere for a holiday this year. Obviously taking all sensible distancing and cleaning precautions. Otherwise it's just sitting at home waiting to die!.

Edited By kc on 29/04/2020 12:24:05

HEAR. HEAR

I am 73 soon, am on hormone treatment for prostrate cancer and have been referred to an oncologist. I want to go flying before a/ I am too sick to do so or b/ in a box!

I have a lot of sympathy to your view, reading various places, some think we can just shut elderly/vulnerable away behind closed doors, when we venture back out. So when did they cease to matter ? And who decided that ?

[Nigel R]

I note today's briefing included an answer indicating allowing outdoor activities was under review. Perhaps there's hope yet for us!

[J D 8]

I also do not want to be shut away for a year or more and that going flying in an open field would be of little risk given the number of people involved.

However if the government gives the wrong message like just politely requesting people stay at home then people do the wrong/daftest thing.

You only have to look at that first weekend when government requested people stay at home and they were then going to beauty spots like Snowdon, Lakes ect in numbers not seen on the summer bank holiday. Ever here 0n Pembrokeshire coast which is at least a 3hr drive from centres of population it was heaving.

Others went to pubs to party like it was 1999.

I expect in future someone may work out how many lives that stupid weekend may have cost.

[Geoff S]

I turned 80 in January and my wife will in October so we're (theoretically) in the vulnerable camp. We're lucky that we still get on together after being a couple since 1965 and married since 1967 and there's no-one else I'd rather be 'locked down' with. I know others who aren't so comfortable.

We're also lucky that we're fit and healthy (my main old age problems are mechanical rather than organic and not too difficult to cope with). We also live in a semi rural position on the edge of a village with big network of paths that start about 80 metres from our door - on Monday we walked 4 miles (measured with my cycle Garmin) with fewer than 200 metres on a paved road and saw almost no-one. We walk about 3 miles every morning and it's been magical with such a onderful Spring.

So we're much better off than many. However we like to cycle (my wife has been the treasurer of the local cycle club for about 30 uears) and, of course I want to fly and our usual 40/50 mile rides aren't possible (in any case I'm not as confident as I was and I don't need an accident). I've written off 2020 for flying even though there's a field I've occasionally used in the past about a 5 minute walk away. I particularly miss the Nats and we were both looking forward to the Buckminster fly-in.

I'm very concerned about the economic effects. The A38 is only about 3/4 mile away. We can see the traffic as we walk across the fields and it's not very busy. I suppose it's a balancing act between lives (even expendable ones like ours) lost because of Corvid 19 and those struggling to feed themselves when jobs disappear. It's truly like living through a dystopian fiction - but it's real.

I have a couple of builds in progress - a Sopwith Pup and a lockdown Liddle Stik (which will probably be ready to fly in a couple of weeks tops). I enjoy building but a big part of the enjoyment is the anticipation of actually testing my skills (or lack thereof) in the air. Strange times indeed. The plague village of Eyam is only about 25 miles away and we've been there often, usually cycling, but I never though we would be living the horror for real ourselves.

Geoff

[fly boy3]

I am eighty two in June. Flying regularly for over thirty years. Due to the fine weather, I walk around a local lake every morning around 7.00am. What do I see every day ? three or four fishermen out earlier than I. It is a very quiet area , one road no houses. I could fly my 1.5 mtr electric glider with no bother.. Trouble is lake is one mile from home. The journey from home would be classed, non-essential. Cheers

Edited By fly boy3 on 29/04/2020 22:54:30

[Brian Cooper]

Under the current restrictions, it is somewhat curious that anyone could get a dog and spend all day in a public park, throwing a stick for the creature, and congregating with other "doggy" people (they do this regularly at my local park) BUT get a model aeroplane and you cannot take it to a secluded, private site to play with it.

Bonkers.

B.C.

[Jon H]

Posted by Brian Cooper on 30/04/2020 09:06:38:

Under the current restrictions, it is somewhat curious that anyone could get a dog and spend all day in a public park, throwing a stick for the creature, and congregating with other "doggy" people (they do this regularly at my local park) BUT get a model aeroplane and you cannot take it to a secluded, private site to play with it.

Bonkers.

B.C.

The trouble is you would have to create a rule for every individual outdoor activity. Fishermen could argue that they are no trouble to anyone sat on their own by a river. Golfers could easily chase balls around if they close the 19th and say only one person on the green or whatever.

The problem is doing all that would take time and they needed a one size fits all rule to cover everything. Now we have a little time, i think there is a case to argue for some of these restrictions to be eased a little.

[Nigel R]

"I expect in future someone may work out how many lives that stupid weekend may have cost"

At that point in time cases were doubling every 2 or 3 days. Our fine example of leadership dithered and flapped for about a week. The maths is then quite easy - a week is time for two doublings. If we end up with 40k dead after this first period of lockdown, a week earlier into proper lockdown restrictions would have made it 10k instead.

In the long run, we cannot tell yet, it may make very little difference to the total tally - without a vaccine or proper treatment, all we can do is controlling how fast people flow through ICU facilities, and at present the NHS seems to have just about stayed under capacity - although that was only by cancelling everything that was not immediately life threatening, with all the knock-on effects that brought. My dad for instance has not had a somewhat important heart op. So personally I am decidedly unimpressed with Whitehall's handling of the debacle so far.

Usual disclaimers - I am an engineer not an epidemiologist.

"Fishermen could argue that they are no trouble to anyone sat on their own by a river."

Fishermen near us have been carrying on regardless. Private land with fishing lakes. They're still there.

One of the problems with our pastime is that we are putting something visible into the sky right next to us. Fishermen are practically invisible from 100m away. They're under the radar, so to speak, and we're not.

"The A38 is only about 3/4 mile away. We can see the traffic as we walk across the fields and it's not very busy"

The A38 outside our house is as quiet as anything; nearby the M5 is still carrying traffic but without the regular everyday 5pm car park effect.

Edited By Nigel R on 30/04/2020 09:31:31

[David Davis]

Pessimists/realists are predicting that the current redtrictions, maybe relaxed a bit will continue until September or beyond. Fair enough but I was looking forward to participating in two events later in the year: La Coupe Des Barons near Lyon in France on 13th June and the Cocklebarrow Farm October Festival on the Oxfordshire-Gloucestershire border which will be held in late September this year.

La Coupe Des Barons is an annual event for a three channel French trainer, the Baron 1914. The event is flown in four rounds. You have to knock over balsa wood sticks in the first round, participate in a pylon race in the second, cut a streamer towed by a slow flying trainer in the third and fly under an enormous "goal post" in the final round. Nothing too demanding but you fly in groups with up to ten models in the air at the same time and mistakes and collisions are commonplace. They make a film of the event each year. The 2017 film is the most amusing in my opinion. **LINK**

Cocklebarrow is a much more relaxed sort of affair, a fly-in for vintage model enthusiasts. **LINK**

I will be reluctant to miss either event especially as a lady I've become rather fond of was going to accompany me but if needs must.

Stay safe gentlemen. The father of young friend died of this virus a few weeks ago. He was only 63. This is not just the latest strain of the flu but something altogether more serious.

[Jon H]

I can understand restrictions remaining in place where people are crowded together in a room or train or other confined space. I would hope that out door activities with decent separation would be permitted after adjustments to the lockdown.

[Former Member]

[This posting has been removed]

[Ron Gray]

Posted by Jon - Laser Engines on 30/04/2020 11:37:18:

I would hope that out door activities with decent separation would be permitted after adjustments to the lockdown.

The trouble is that there are people who have / are / will abuse this, we've all seen it happen.