Transitioning to a low carbon life

[Ron Gray]

Just had a look 

 

[J D 8]

  Those high number pink on the map area's are where we have the remaining heavy industry's like Port Talbot.  We are still going to need steel.

[Shaun Walsh]

5 hours ago, IDD15 said:

 

Oh I don't know.

 

In June this year the SMMT reported that sales were 117,266 vehicles. EV sales were 31700 (There were barely 40,000 EVs in total when I started driving one in 2016)  units with a market share of 17.9%. When compared to the same month last year EV sales have grown 39.4%. Significantly the various flavours of hybrid vehicle also performed strongly, so much so that around 100,000 of those vehicles sold use electrons to help propel them to varying degrees . More detailed figures can be found on the SMMT  website.

 

Significant things can happen when people start exerting their wallets...

 

idd

Is there a breakdown of the proportion of new EVs sold as company vehicles and those which were sold to private individuals?  I believe that a big driver for EV adoption is low BIK charges for company vehicles.

[MattyB]

5 hours ago, IDD15 said:

 

Oh I don't know.

 

In June this year the SMMT reported that sales were 117,266 vehicles. EV sales were 31700 (There were barely 40,000 EVs in total when I started driving one in 2016)  units with a market share of 17.9%. When compared to the same month last year EV sales have grown 39.4%. Significantly the various flavours of hybrid vehicle also performed strongly, so much so that around 100,000 of those vehicles sold use electrons to help propel them to varying degrees . More detailed figures can be found on the SMMT  website.

 

Significant things can happen when people start exerting their wallets...

 

idd

…and governments start disincentivising the ICE alternatives. Make no mistake, governments globally are going to increase taxes on fuel in the next 10 years to move people towards zero tailpipe emission vehicles and recover lost tax £s from the VED taxes that EVs and some hybrids have historically avoided.

[Rich Griff]

The lad would chose a Tesla, I would chose a Tesla estate, failing that a red one please.

 

Listen to radio 4 after the six o clock news, it sounds as if it Gunnar be good !

 

Comments on that radio program please as I am Gunnar be watching the F1 dodgems...

[Outrunner]

9 minutes ago, Rich Griff said:

The lad would chose a Tesla, I would chose a Tesla estate, failing that a red one please.

 

Listen to radio 4 after the six o clock news, it sounds as if it Gunnar be good !

 

Comments on that radio program please as I am Gunnar be watching the F1 dodgems...

What are you rambling on about?

[Rich Griff]

Since no one had replied to this I take it that no one listened to that radio 4 program after the 6 o clock news this evening, including me !

 

Radio 4 is that interesting talkie radio station close to classic FM, it also broadcasts " the archers" etc..

 

Anyways the advert for that program ( not the archers ! ) Said that the cost of hs2 ( the super duper super expensive rail link between somewhere down south to somewhere up north ) would be equivalent to ( or even more than possibly ? ) giving every driver in the UK a free electric car !

 

I will wait for the repeat during the week.

 

A free electric car or a rail journey shortened by 20 mins or so, which would you rather ?

 

Depends if you can drive or not I suppose.

 

What a great pity there are no "British owned" British car manufacturers making British designed and made British cars made by British workers for British people, or British rail even.

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by Rich Griff

[Jon H]

11 hours ago, IDD15 said:

Oh I don't know.

 

Its a fantasy. There is insufficient infrastructure and manufacturing capacity to do it within that time frame. I have no chance of operating an ev as i have nowhere to charge it. No doubt someone will suggest i use a public charger, but assuming its not busted what am i supposed to do while my car charges up? Sit in the carpark and twiddle my thumbs? Not likely. 

 

Another issue is raw material. The big wigs responsible for lithium mining have already stated numerous times that all known current supply is insufficient for projected demand globally. 

 

We are back to scale again and the magnitude of the problem. and what about the additional demands on the grid? You cant build power stations that fast and if its not renewable then the green argument gets rather brown.

 

Ev's are the betamax of cars anyway and hydrogen fuel cell electric will be the ultimate answer. However, we need to work out how to make sufficient hydrogen in a sustainable way and on a scale that works. Cracking water apart is the way to go, but currently most hydrogen is made by a very filthy steam reformation of methane. Hopefully that can be sorted out and we can get going with fuel cells. We then just have to hope we dont remove so much water from the hydrological cycle that we screw up something else with the climate, ocean salinity etc. AS discussed before Norway would have it easy as they could build a hydrogen plant next to their abundant hydro dams. It would be double win as you could scrap the co2 intensive battery....however, places without abundant clean energy might find it more of a challenge. 

 

Its a shame fusion has been 5-10 years away from being ready for the last 50 years. It would be really handy about now. 

 

 

 

[Zflyer]

Of course they will up the taxes Matty and when they reach the tipping point a green levy will be imposed on electric vehicles, probably graded by the weight of the vehicle.

May also include a dirty tax for the additional particles from the braking system.

Even a low carbon society has to raise revenue

[MattyB]

3 hours ago, Rich Griff said:

Since no one had replied to this I take it that no one listened to that radio 4 program after the 6 o clock news this evening, including me !

 

Radio 4 is that interesting talkie radio station close to classic FM, it also broadcasts " the archers" etc..

 

Anyways the advert for that program ( not the archers ! ) Said that the cost of hs2 ( the super duper super expensive rail link between somewhere down south to somewhere up north ) would be equivalent to ( or even more than possibly ? ) giving every driver in the UK a free electric car !

 

I will wait for the repeat during the week.

 

A free electric car or a rail journey shortened by 20 mins or so, which would you rather ?

 

Depends if you can drive or not I suppose.

 

What a great pity there are no "British owned" British car manufacturers making British designed and made British cars made by British workers for British people, or British rail even.

 

Nobody listened to it because your post gave no context as to what the programme was about, why it was relevant to this discussion or why it would be of interest. I didn’t act on it for the same reason I didn’t stop to listen to the guy on the local high street last week claiming the world was about to end. 

[Shaun Walsh]

The program is called "more or less" on bbc radio 4, available on bbc sounds.

It examined, among other things, a throwaway comment on another bbc radio program that "for the cost of HS2 you could buy everyone an electric car". Their conclusion is that you couldn't,  not by a long chalk, in fact you couldn't even give the cheapest new electric car to everyone with a driving license. 

[Frank Skilbeck]

10 hours ago, Jon - Laser Engines said:

 

Its a fantasy. There is insufficient infrastructure and manufacturing capacity to do it within that time frame. I have no chance of operating an ev as i have nowhere to charge it. No doubt someone will suggest i use a public charger, but assuming its not busted what am i supposed to do while my car charges up? Sit in the carpark and twiddle my thumbs? Not likely. 

 

Another issue is raw material. The big wigs responsible for lithium mining have already stated numerous times that all known current supply is insufficient for projected demand globally. 

 

We are back to scale again and the magnitude of the problem. and what about the additional demands on the grid? You cant build power stations that fast and if its not renewable then the green argument gets rather brown.

 

Ev's are the betamax of cars anyway and hydrogen fuel cell electric will be the ultimate answer. However, we need to work out how to make sufficient hydrogen in a sustainable way and on a scale that works. Cracking water apart is the way to go, but currently most hydrogen is made by a very filthy steam reformation of methane. Hopefully that can be sorted out and we can get going with fuel cells. We then just have to hope we dont remove so much water from the hydrological cycle that we screw up something else with the climate, ocean salinity etc. AS discussed before Norway would have it easy as they could build a hydrogen plant next to their abundant hydro dams. It would be double win as you could scrap the co2 intensive battery....however, places without abundant clean energy might find it more of a challenge. 

 

Its a shame fusion has been 5-10 years away from being ready for the last 50 years. It would be really handy about now. 

 

 

 

Lithium batteries may be the betamax and in a few years time lithium batteries will probably be old hat, but it will be different battery chemistry that will replace them https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/7-lithium-battery-alternatives/ hydrogen by electrolysis is less efficient than using the electricity to charge batteries.

 

BTW producing oil releases quite a bit of CO2, typically today to produce 4 barrels of consume 1 barrel, last project I worked used around 3 million cubic feet of gas per day, for power generation and heat, for an average oil production of 15,000 barrels of oil per day (fairly horrible heavy stuff at that). So while many note CO2 in lithium mining they overlook the CO2 released in building and operating oil facilities.

 

 

[Jon H]

If new chemistry comes online to replace lithium then fair enough, my point is the same though. The current crop of ev's are not the long term answer. 

 

Cracking oil apart is energy intensive without doubt, but we need oil for more than just fuel so if we didnt use the fuel and just used the other oil products we would be wasting a substantial amount of the raw material. many of those other oil products have no replacements available from sustainable sources. That isnt to say we dont need to find alternatives long term though, but i do wonder if many of the products can be replaced completely or if we will use oil forever just in greatly reduced quantity. As for the co2 impact of building the refinery's, that is a done deal and already floating around up there. Opening a new mine for example would be a greater impact based upon fugitive emissions alone. Much of which would be methane which is far worse for the planet than co2. 

[Nigel R]

 

43 minutes ago, Jon - Laser Engines said:

The current crop of ev's are not the long term answer.

 

Well, politics, and advertising...

 

Small light EVs that charge reasonably quickly and completely cover 99.9% of commuting needs are available. For instance,

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuling_Hongguang_Mini_EV

 

Kerb weight, 660kg. Power, 27hp, 14kWh battery, 100 mile range. Has sold over a million units. I don't know the charge time, but that's got to be someting like four or five hours full charge from a "standard" 13A socket.

 

(I note, original mk1 mini, around 600kg kerb weight, power about 35hp).

 

You simply can't buy these things here because people have been convinced (for whatever reason) they need aspirational, large, SUVs, with enormous ranges (Tesla 3, 75kWh, 350mile range? Literally five times bigger battery). Despite the fact that the average journey in the UK is about 8 miles at 20mph.

 

Food for thought.

[Nigel R]

 

12 hours ago, Rich Griff said:

What a great pity there are no "British owned" British car manufacturers making British designed and made British cars made by British workers for British people, or British rail even

 

Didn't we did have one of those start up quite recently? Ineos?

 

Quote

Ineos will develop the version of the 4×4 in Europe with car parts manufactured in Canada from 2026. The decision means that the UK has missed out on building a second Ineos vehicle, after Ratcliffe, a vocal Brexit backer who is resident in Monaco for tax purposes, chose a French factory for the original Grenadier.

 

source: here

 

Ah... oops... Guess Ratcliffe isn't really that British if he lives in Monaco... and it's made in France...

 

But it does look a bit like a Land Rover, I suppose.

[Jon H]

AS we already discussed i totally agree that large long range ev's are not the best way to use the tech. Its as ugly as box of frogs, but would be perfect as a city run around. 

 

9 minutes ago, Nigel R said:

You simply can't buy these things here because people have been convinced (for whatever reason) they need aspirational, large, SUVs, with enormous ranges (Tesla 3, 75kWh, 350mile range? Literally five times bigger battery). Despite the fact that the average journey in the UK is about 8 miles at 20mph.

 

I think this is simply because the car companies make more profit on the fancier car. 

[Cuban8]

On 31/08/2023 at 17:06, Frank Skilbeck said:

Just for comparison, a litre of diesel contains roughly 10 kwh of energy, so a gallon 46 kwh, so the equivalent would be around 220 mpg if it used the stored energy as efficiently as the EV.

How would the weight and volume compare eh?

[Don Fry]

I don’t think Franks numbers are real world. 10 kWh of leccy in a battery provides the amount of energy stated, but takes no account of the energy losses to put that energy in the battery. 
Same misuse as leccy cars are zero carbon emitters. Only true at the tailpipe.

[Don Fry]

One of the French manufactures make a micro car, Citroen Ami.  The battery is removable, and is on wheels, to allow charging by folks without parking facilities with power. About 50 miles range, 30 mph.

[Nigel R]

Slightly different animal, 2 seat quad cycle rather than a car, no license needed in France I believe, but point noted.

 

Also noted that sales of Ami are quite low in the UK. 10k units to date over 3 years?

 

As compared to the smallest mass market cars, VW Up shifting >100k units a year, Smart Fortwo >100k units a year near launch.

[Martin Dance 1]

I think the whole car manufacturing scene is a can of worms and ev's are simply a bit of a diversion. The auto fashion is for SUV's the bigger the better. For example just launched is the Aston Martin DBX 707, a petrol vehicle. 0-62mph 3.3. secs features launch control,ceramic brakes etc. Other than on a racetrack where can you use that performance? Certainly not on the M25 between the M4 and M40 you'll be lucky to reach 50mph during the working day. Having said that the Aston Martin is a good looking vehicle compared to many SUV's. Any way this tendency to larger and larger cars has coined a new word for the dictionary 'autobesity'- the tendancy for cars especially SUV's to get bigger and bigger so that many no longer fit into a standard UK car park space (2.4 X4.8 metres).😀

As for HS2 or perhaps it should now be called the Old Oak Common to Crewe branch line, for that is the only section that is garunteed to be completed. I pass by a couple of bits of it on a regular basis. My comment is it's a pity that the builders weren't made to use the same technology as the Victorian railway builders used. Muscle power and steam shovels. That would have been environmentally friendly. The methods being used on HS2 are not, all to save 20 mis on the journey to and from Birmingham.

[IDD15]

14 hours ago, Jon - Laser Engines said:

 

Its a fantasy.

 

 

In 2016 there were about 40,000 EVs  on the road, you had a choice of Tesla S, Tesla X, Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe. The charging infrastructure was to say the least sparse, with just 150 rapid charging stations which if you were lucky might give you a 50kW charge rate. If you wanted to drive a hydrogen vehicle things were not much better with only the Toyota Mirai saloon and 9 hydrogen filling stations available across the UK.

 

Fast forward to 2023 and there are 839678 EVs on the road with a choice of 224 models (battery sizes etc) across nearly every manufacturer. This fleet is now serviced by 45737 devices across 26,000 locations. Approx 9000 of these chargers are rapid and ultra rapid with some of these chargers now capable of delivering 350kW. In addition it is is estimated that there are over 400,000 domestic fast chargers installed.

 

In addition to EVs there are also 520,000 plug in hybrids on the road. So that's over 1.3 million vehicles kicking a big hole in their emissions and oil company profits.

 

In 2023 on the hydrogen front you can now choose between the Mirai and Hyundai NEXO and fill them up at possibly/maybe 15 filling stations. Had read some had closed or were non operational.

 

I think that the EV fantasy is a lot more rooted in reality than the hydrogen fantasy. In reality I think our fantasies will meet in the middle at some point. Hydrogen will most likely have a role to play but I see very little evidence of progress save for a few commuter trains in Germany. 

 

Meanwhile humanity managed to deforest an area the size of Switzerland in 2022 and, in 2023 forest fires in Canada have already destroyed an area the size of England. I think it is high time to "stop poking the bear" by using the atmosphere as an open sewer for all our sakes. 

 

idd

 

 

 

 

[Frank Skilbeck]

4 hours ago, Jon - Laser Engines said:

If new chemistry comes online to replace lithium then fair enough, my point is the same though. The current crop of ev's are not the long term answer. 

 

Cracking oil apart is energy intensive without doubt, but we need oil for more than just fuel so if we didnt use the fuel and just used the other oil products we would be wasting a substantial amount of the raw material. many of those other oil products have no replacements available from sustainable sources. That isnt to say we dont need to find alternatives long term though, but i do wonder if many of the products can be replaced completely or if we will use oil forever just in greatly reduced quantity. As for the co2 impact of building the refinery's, that is a done deal and already floating around up there. Opening a new mine for example would be a greater impact based upon fugitive emissions alone. Much of which would be methane which is far worse for the planet than co2. 

The example I quoted were just for extracting the oil, transport and refining are on top of that. Yes lots of products made from oil, seems a shame just to burn a lot of it. In the 1930s it took around 1 barrel to extract a 100 barrels, now it 1 for 4, also to call production facilities oil production facilities isn't strictly accurate a more apt description would be water extraction facilities, around 3 barrels of oily saline water processed for every barrel of oil produced. The stuff is getting harder to extract, but the industry is very well developed.

[Frank Skilbeck]

3 hours ago, Don Fry said:

I don’t think Franks numbers are real world. 10 kWh of leccy in a battery provides the amount of energy stated, but takes no account of the energy losses to put that energy in the battery. 
Same misuse as leccy cars are zero carbon emitters. Only true at the tailpipe.

Yep true and depends on what you use to generate the power, in the UK the average CO2 power generation is around 162 g per kwh, my Mini is currently doing 4.9 miles per kwh, 7.9 km, so around 21g per km, my 2litre diesel (52mpg) 119 g per km, the small petrol car the ev replaced was rated at 130 g per km tailpipe emissions.

 

BTW a combined cycle gas turbine generation plant has a thermal efficiency of over 65% an ICE engine less than 25%.

[Learner]

26 minutes ago, IDD15 said:

 This fleet is now serviced by 45737 devices across 26,000 locations. 

 

 

 

 

 

You forgot to mention up to 30% not working.