Insanity seems to be setting in

[Nigel R]

Lots more pages in the times ben

[Don Fry]

Right wing, scrapes principles off.

[Gary Manuel]

Posted by john stones 1 on 09/03/2020 17:04:04:

How do we pull up the drawbridge Gary ?

That's an opportunity we've missed John. We are an island with a natural quarantine zone all around us. We had the chance in January / early February, but our glorious leaders never took it. It's too late now.

It's no good pulling the drawbridge up once the attacker is inside the castle. Same with forcing everyone with symptoms to self-quarantine. That only works if there is no infection outside the quarantine zone.

I'm afraid that it is widespread now and it's only a matter of time before it comes knocking on your door. Best thing to do is eat well and build your strength up now so that you can fight it when it arrives.

Oh and don't forget to wash your hands - and apparently wipe your bum.

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

I'm no wiser Gary, the theory sounds O.K. Doing it snowballs into a monumental undertaking, and who knows how many suffer from knock on consequences.

Natural quarantine zone ? Lets hope we have the medicines for those who need them, before we lock up n go hide in the fridge.

[Gary Manuel]

Posted by Nigel R on 09/03/2020 17:20:22:

"its pretty much like normal flu."

Normal flu, incubation around 1 to 4 days. Covid-19, 2-14 days.

Normal flu, each infected infects (on average!) 1.3 other people. Covid-19, that number is between 2 and 3 (perhaps directly linked to the longer incubation period).

Normal flu, mortality rate around 0.1%. Covid-19, mortality rate around 3%

Normal flu, vaccine available. Covid-19, no vaccine.

Make your own mind up.

Incidentally, Covid-19 death rate for over 80s is near 15%.

Facts all easily google-able.

Yep.

A couple of other things concern me too, which I've not heard an answer to.

1. Children are apparently immune to it or have symptoms that are so minor that they simply don't show. BUT if they do have a very mild case of it, do they CARRY it? In which case, they will be the biggest group of disease spreaders, especially when they visit their ageing Grandma and Grandpa at the weekend.

2. 90 odd % of people are getting over the virus and declaring themselves cured. Are they really cured? Can humans develop immunity to Covid-19 to prevent them getting it again? If they become immune, can they still be carriers, to infect a fresh set of people they are exposed to?

I'm not saying that this is all doom and gloom, but there are a lot of unanswered questions.

Time to put the kettle on again. Cheers!

[Don Fry]

Little kids are bi-ped germ carriers.

some evidence that this one is biphasic, it can hide in the system, the test shows negative, then it does you again. But that's reported, not proved.

Edited By Don Fry on 09/03/2020 20:34:24

[Peter Miller]

Do you know somthing?

It is a great relief tome that I am over 80. I will not have to endure the insanity too much longer!

[Gary Manuel]

Posted by john stones 1 on 09/03/2020 20:12:49:

I'm no wiser Gary, the theory sounds O.K. Doing it snowballs into a monumental undertaking, and who knows how many suffer from knock on consequences.

Natural quarantine zone ? Lets hope we have the medicines for those who need them, before we lock up n go hide in the fridge.

It's water under the bridge now John, but for what it's worth I'll elaborate.

Which is the more monumental undertaking, closing all ports and airports and facing the short term economic consequences, or leaving them open and allowing the disease in? The full knock on effects of the disease are not yet known, but already include a number of deaths, which will inevitably grow in number. It will certainly lead to overstretching of the NHS, with obvious other knock on effects through missed operations / treatment etc. It will affect industry throughout the UK as people fall ill and / or avoid leaving home to go to work. It will close schools which will further affect industry as parents stay home to care for their children.

If keeping the ports and airports was successful at keeping the disease out, it would allow other countries to contain the virus within their own borders and have given time for a virus to be developed (maybe).

It would also have avoided the world shortage of Andrex.

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

He's built another bridge ?

Nope still not with you, bit more monumental to many than a short term economical hit, lacks some as plans go does that.

Keep calm and carry on for me, good luck all.

P.S you got any spare Nord washers ?

[Frank Skilbeck]

Posted by Gary Manuel on 09/03/2020 20:25:14:

2. 90 odd % of people are getting over the virus and declaring themselves cured. Are they really cured? Can humans develop immunity to Covid-19 to prevent them getting it again? If they become immune, can they still be carriers, to infect a fresh set of people they are exposed to?

The very act of getting better means your body has learnt how to deal with Covid-19, so you are now immune to that strain. But not if it mutates into a different strain, same reason why the flu vaccine isn't always efficient as it may not be protecting against the actual flu strain that's going around.

As for pulling up the drawbridge, most of the cases coming in have been Brtis returning from areas where there has been outbreaks, they don't know they have got it because of the long incubation period where they are still infectious but haven't developed any symptoms. So we need to ban all foreign travel and visitors to the UK for at least two weeks before there are any known cases in overseas countries.............. Not great for a country that is planning to trade with the world.

[David Hazell 1]

This makes some chilling reading, and any naysayers who are trivialising its serious implications should do well to read this and just think upon it for a moment...

https://medium.com/@amwren/forget-about-the-death-rate-this-is-why-you-should-be-worried-about-the-coronavirus-890fbf9c4de6

Edited By David Hazell 1 on 09/03/2020 21:54:30

[Jon H]

while your report there raises some valid points it does little to justify the purchase of a hundred weight in bog roll as there are going to be bigger problems if it all hits the fan. Getting into a panic wont help.

On a lighter note, youtube offers an 'alternative' defence tactic for those fearing infection

[David Hazell 1]

Posted by Jon - Laser Engines on 09/03/2020 22:41:08:

while your report there raises some valid points it does little to justify the purchase of a hundred weight in bog roll as there are going to be bigger problems if it all hits the fan. Getting into a panic wont help.

Yeah I realise that the whole observation of this thread was questioning the sanity of those bulk-bog-roll-buyers. I too am a little bit surprised by that behaviour...

[Trevor Crook]

Just read that article David, sobering if everything presented was true.

The final sentence amused me though - "If you enjoyed reading this......"

[Peter Miller]

I havex a slight problem.

I buy a four pack of bog rolls. I am now just starting to use my last of four.

Are they going to accuse me of panic buying if I buy my next packet of rolls?

Being over 80 do I need four rolls or will that be a waste of two or three

[Nigel R]

"it does little to justify the purchase of a hundred weight in bog roll as there are going to be bigger problems if it all hits the fan. Getting into a panic wont help."

No, indeed. Although having a spare pack on hand wouldn't be a bad idea. Ditto with some basic foodstuffs, pasta, cereals, dried milk or something, whatever's your (long life) poison. Don't panic, but do prepare. Plan for the worst, hope for the best, etc.

I'm expecting our lads school to close at some stage. Then I'm at home at least some of the time, because, so are they.

[Zflyer]

The article by WREN contains some inaccuracies, the transmission has not proven to be airborne, (if it had the number of infections by now would be very high.

The use of an image of a tent at the ear of a hospital, yes it was an isolation pod, however my local hospital has a number of well appointed porta cabins.

Presently there have been no reported deaths of those without an underlying condition.

AND if you read the article go to read the responses as well.

Yes we will be having a number of infections and a number of deaths but some perspective is required.

[David Hazell 1]

Posted by Zflyer on 10/03/2020 09:47:13:

The article by WREN contains some inaccuracies, the transmission has not proven to be airborne, (if it had the number of infections by now would be very high.

The use of an image of a tent at the ear of a hospital, yes it was an isolation pod, however my local hospital has a number of well appointed porta cabins.

Presently there have been no reported deaths of those without an underlying condition.

AND if you read the article go to read the responses as well.

Yes we will be having a number of infections and a number of deaths but some perspective is required.

100% agree on all of your points. The comments do add some balance to the view, but the point put across (even if the numbers are out) does help to explain perhaps why this is getting quite so much news coverage. I'm not bulk buying bog rolls, but I have been adding a few additional tins and dried goods to my shop each week to stock up a bit.

[kevin b]

[Peter Miller]

I just went to my village shop...for gas cylinders.

I am down to my last loo roll. The shop had plenty in stock. So I bought one 4 pack!!!

[Don Fry]

You need to address you profligate use of bog rolls Peter, that's three in a day. Have BogRolls Anonymous got a branch near you?

[Peter Miller]

Eric Robson has just reminded me on another thread of a memory from my RAF days.

When I was in the RAF at St Mawgan in the late 50s, we did some control line flying. Now we didn't have a lot of money then so anything that might save money was tried out.

This chap turned up with a combat type model which he had covered with toilet paper (RAF issue) These were pretty small sheets in a hard glossy paper with "Government issue" on every sheet in green letters.

He had covered it with the paper at different angles and then doped it.

The first landing and it shattered everywhere.

Never forgotten that.

[Gary Murphy 1]

Posted by Don Fry on 09/03/2020 17:16:58:

Gary, to quote, "The papers and TV news have not done much to help. Its 95% worse scenario and death toll compared to 5% of experts saying ,its pretty much like normal flu."

My reading says flu kills between, numbers vary, about one in a thousand to one in ten thousand of people infected. This one kills about 1 to 2 percent. What basis is there to describe it as normal flu?

My limited knowledge tells me, you can not really stop either type of flu. the symptoms are pretty similar. If not young or old or infirm you will not die,same for normal flu. TB kills more than flu even today,yes I know its harder to contract BUT end of the day its FLU however different it is to WU flu. its not the black plague is it,then I would worry. I have as much chance of dying from wu flu than winning the lottery, again a rough non-expert comparison, I might be several thou or million out but I wont be worrying or stock pilling food.

[J D 8]

There is flu and then there is FLU. During the 1918/19 flu pandemic there was a family of seven. [ not related ] living at my farm. ONLY two survived, the youngest and the oldest .

[Phil Brooks]

Posted by Peter Miller on 10/03/2020 11:25:47:

Eric Robson has just reminded me on another thread of a memory from my RAF days.

When I was in the RAF at St Mawgan in the late 50s, we did some control line flying. Now we didn't have a lot of money then so anything that might save money was tried out.

This chap turned up with a combat type model which he had covered with toilet paper (RAF issue) These were pretty small sheets in a hard glossy paper with "Government issue" on every sheet in green letters.

He had covered it with the paper at different angles and then doped it.

The first landing and it shattered everywhere.

Never forgotten that.

In my time, many years ago, as a member of the territorial army, I was told by the regimental quarter-master that the toilet paper ration he was allowed amounted to three sheets per man per day. How many men were denied relief and suffered in the interests of the hobby? From memory, I'm surprised that it needed doping, it was naturally impervious to anything!